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Is Arbitrage Tying the Price of Ethanol to that of Gasoline? Evidence from the Uptake of Flexible-Fuel Technology

Alberto Salvo and Cristian Huse

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No3-5
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Abstract:
Brazil is the only sizable economy to date to have developed a homegrown ubiquitously-retailed alternative to fossil fuels in light road transportation: ethanol from sugar cane. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the uptake of flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs) has been tremendous. Five years after their introduction, FFVs accounted for 90% of new car sales and 30% of the circulating car stock. We provide a stylized model of the sugar/ethanol industry which incorporates substitution by consumers, across ethanol and gasoline at the pump, and substitution by producers, across domestic regional and export markets for ethanol and sugar. We argue that the model stands up well to the empirical co-movement in prices at the pump in a panel of Brazilian states. The paper offers a case study of how agricultural and energy markets link up at the very micro level.



The Dynamic Time-frequency Relationship between International Oil Prices and Investor Sentiment in China: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis

Zhengke Ye, Chunyan Hu, Linjie He, Guangda Ouyang, and Fenghua Wen

Year: 2020
Volume: Volume 41
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.5.fwen
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Abstract:
We take a fresh look at the interaction between crude oil prices and investor sentiment from the novel perspective of both the time and the frequency domains. By using principal component analysis, we first construct an investor sentiment indicator. Then, crude oil prices are decomposed into three oil price shocks through an SVAR model. Lastly, the dynamic relationship between investor sentiment and oil price shocks is comprehensively studied from both the time and the frequency domains via wavelet coherence analysis. Our results show the leading position of crude oil prices in the co-movement relationship with investor sentiment. Further, we distinguish the different effects of oil price shocks on investor sentiment at different times and frequencies. We also find that the patterns of the co-movement between oil prices (oil price shocks) and investor sentiment change not only with time but also with frequency.





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