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Systemic Risk for Financial Institutions in the Major Petroleum-based Economies: The Role of Oil

Ahmed Khalifa, Massimiliano Caporin, Michele Costola, and Shawkat Hammoudeh

Year: 2021
Volume: Volume 42
Number: Number 6
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.6.akha
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Abstract:
We examine the relationship between oil returns and systemic risk of financial institutions in major petroleum-based economies. By estimating ΔCoVaR, we observe the presence of remarkable increases in risk levels during the financial crises and achieve a better risk measurement when oil returns are included in the risk functions. Moreover, the estimated spread between the CoVaR without and with oil returns is absorbed in a time range that is longer than the duration of the oil shocks. This indicates that drops in oil prices which have a longer effect on risk and financial institutions require more time to account for their impact. Policy implications are also provided.



The Asymmetric Relationship between Conventional/Shale Rig Counts and WTI Oil Prices

Massimiliano Caporin, Fulvio Fontini, and Rocco Romaniello

Year: 2024
Volume: Volume 45
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.45.2.mcap
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Abstract:
This work analyses the asymmetric response of conventional and shale oil rig counts to WTI oil price returns. Our analysis shows that the rig count time series exhibited a structural change after the oil glut of 2014. All series are non-stationary in each sub-period but not cointegrated. Therefore, after controlling for possible confounding factors, a vector auto regressive (VAR) model is set up. Our specification accounts for the possible role of oil production and distinguishes between positive and negative oil price changes. It is shown that shale and conventional rig counts reacted differently in each subperiod to signed changes in oil price. Subsequently, by evaluating the response of rig counts to oil price shocks, their intensity and duration over time, we observe that the shale oil rig count reacts more intensively to positive than to negative oil price changes. On the contrary, the conventional rig count exhibits a modest reaction only to positive price changes. Finally, we robustify our findings by focusing on the data of the Permian basin, on the one hand, and the Anadarko, Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara, on the other hand, which are characterized by different patterns in the number of Drilled but not Completed wells.





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