Econonomics of Energy and Environmental Policy

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Factors influencing shale gas production forecasting: Empirical studies of Barnett, Fayetteville, Haynesville, and Marcellus Shale plays

This paper reviews major findings and insights from a series of integrated geologic, engineering, economic, and econometric analyses performed on the four largest U.S. shale gas plays. Developments in the Barnett Shale, Fayetteville Shale, Haynesville Shale, and Marcellus Shale plays are explained on the basis of a comprehensive data set, including existing wells production histories, drilling path data, geologic attributes and natural gas market parameters. The paper presents the data-driven methodology consistently applied to all four plays. The key insights discussed include the relationship between a play's geology and well production; the impact of technological improvements of well productivity and inventory of future wells; and the dependence of well economics on geology, technology, and regulations.
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JEL Codes:Q35: Hydrocarbon Resources, O13: Economic Development: Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products, L95: Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities

Keywords: Shale gas, Production outlook, Uncertainty

DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.4.1.siko

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Published in Volume 4, Number 1 of The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.


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