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Climate Politics from Kyoto to Bonn: From Little to Nothing?

Abstract:
We investigate how the U.S. withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and the provisions of the Bonn climate Policy conference on sink credits and emissions trading will change the economic and environmental impacts of the Protocol in its original form. Based on simulations with a large-scale computable general equilibrium model, we find that the U.S. withdrawal and amendments of Bonn reduce the Kyoto Protocol's impact to business-as-usual without binding emission constraints. U.S. compliance under the new Bonn provisions, on the other hand, would accommodate a substantial cut in global emissions at relatively small compliance costs for OECD countries.

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Energy Specializations: Energy and the Environment – Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases; Energy and the Environment – Policy and Regulation

JEL Codes:
Q54 - Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
E60 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General

Keywords: Climate policy, emission trading, computable general equilibrium (CGE), carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol23-No2-2


Published in Volume23, Number 2 of The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.