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Vehicle Use and Fuel Economy: How Big is the "Rebound" Effect?

David L. Greene

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No1-7
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Abstract:
By reducing the fuel costs of travel, motor vehicle efficiency, improvements tend to increase the demand for travel, thereby offsetting some of the energy-saving benefit of the efficiency improvement and creating a "rebound" effect. The key factor is the elasticity of vehicle travel with respect to fuel cost per mile. Past studies offer a wide range of estimates depending on model formulation and time period, with more recent analyses indicating that travel is insensitive to fuel costs and efficiency. This paper analyzes U.S. light-duty, vehicle miles travelled from 1966 89, examining a variety of statistical issuesthat bear on the size of the "rebound" effect, including error structure, functional form, and possible lagged effects. The results consistently confirm that the 'rebound" effect has been quite small, about 5 15%, or less; and that short-run (one year) adjustments accounted for essentially all of the change in travel due to fuel price and fuel economy changes. The findings imply that the energy savings of technical fuel economy improvements to cars and light trucks will be only slightly reduced by increased vehicle travel. They also imply that gasoline taxes would need to be very large in order to stimulate significant reductions in travel.



An Almost Ideal Demand System Model of Household Vehicle Fuel Expenditure Allocation in the United States

Gbadebo Oladosu

Year: 2003
Volume: Volume 24
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No1-1
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Abstract:
In this study I model vehicle-fuel expenditure allocation in multi-vehicle households based on the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS).Using data from surveys conducted by the Energy Information Administration in 1988, 1991 and 1994, I estimate the AIDS model, augmented with a comprehensive set of household and vehicle characteristics for households owning 1 to 4 vehicles ordered by vehicle age. Results show that vehicle characteristics are the most significant factors in the expenditure allocation process. Mean and standard deviation of price, expenditure and Allen substitution elasticities are calculated across households. Own-price elasticities for all vehicles are close to 1. Allen substitution elasticities indicate that all vehicle pairs are substitutes, and only vehicle 1 is found to be expenditure inelastic. The approach taken in this study enables a disentangling of vehicle allocation/substitution effects from aggregate household vehicle use behavior. This will be useful in the analysis of efficiency and distributional effects of policies affecting household transportation.



Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect

Kenneth A. Small and Kurt Van Dender

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No1-2
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Abstract:
We estimate the rebound effect for motor vehicles, by which improved fuel efficiency causes additional travel, using a pooled cross section of US states for 1966-2001. Our model accounts for endogenous changes in fuel efficiency, distinguishes between autocorrelation and lagged effects, includes a measure of the stringency of fuel-economy standards, and allows the rebound effect to vary with income, urbanization, and the fuel cost of driving. At sample averages of variables, our simultaneous-equations estimates of the short- and long-run rebound effect are 4.5% and 22.2%. But rising real income caused it to diminish substantially over the period, aided by falling fuel prices. With variables at 1997-2001 levels, our estimates are only 2.2% and 10.7%, considerably smaller than values typically assumed for policy analysis. With income and starting fuel efficiency at 1997-2001 levels and fuel prices 58 percent higher, the estimates are still only 3.1% and 15.3%, respectively.





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