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Power Factors and the Efficient Pricing and Production of Reactive Power

Sanford V. Berg with the assistance of Jim Adams and Bob Niekum

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-NoSI-6
No Abstract



Energy Demand Modeling with Noisy Input-Output Variables

Lov Kumar Kher, Fereidoon P. Sioshansi, and Soroosh Sorooshian

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No4-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
One of the most important challenges facing energy analysts is to predict future energy consumption levels. The volatility of energy prices following the 1973 oil embargo and the unexpected elasticity of demand to higher prices caught most energy forecasters off the mark (see Energy Daily, "How It Didn't Turn Out: The Forecasters Who Failed," 1986). The same can be said of electricity forecasters who consistently overshot growth rates for over a decade despite compelling signs to lower their projections (Uhler and Nelson, 1985), (see Figure 1).



A Time-Series Analysis of U.S. Petroleum Industry Inventory Behavior

Robert Krol and Shirley Svorny

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No4-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper examines inventory behavior in the U.S. petroleum industry. Inventories of crude oil and its three major products-gasoline, distillate and residual fuel oil-are studied. Earlier empirical studies of inventory behavior have been unable to provide evidence of the production smoothing role of inventories emphasized in the theoretical literature (see Blinder, 1984). We suggest that these results are due to a tradition of relying on a partial-adjustment model to explain inventory behavior. We feel that the partial-adjustment model ignores potentially significant relationships between lagged values of explanatory variables and inventories implied by dynamic analysis. This leads us to investigate the time-series properties of petroleum inventories using the vector autoregression(VAR) methodology developed by Sims (1980).



The Perverse Effects of A Variable Oil Import Fee

David R Henderson

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
If the world oil market is at all monopolistic, then a variable import fee (VIF) has more perverse effects than a flat import fee on the country that imposes it. Like an import quota, a VIF makes the importing country's demand for oil less elastic and increases the price paid by buyers in that country. Moreover, a VIF does not necessarily yield any tariff revenue to the country that imposes it. Finally, under very plausible conditions, a VIF may facilitate price discrimination by a monopolistic foreign producer against the country that imposes it.



VIF Vivit: Reply to Henderson

S. Fred Singer

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-11
View Abstract

Abstract:
Henderson's main conclusions are incorrect. Oil is a fungible substance, and therefore price discrimination is not possible. (Some argue, however, that there is evidence the world oil market is segmented, and that a degree of price discrimination therefore is possible; Weiner, 1984). Consequently, a variable import fee (VIF) imposed on imported oil will shield the US economy from short-lived price collapses, as intended - and at the same time garner modest revenues for the Treasury.



VIF Mortis Est: A Rejoinder to Singer

David R Henderson

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-12
View Abstract

Abstract:
S. Fred Singer claims that my first three cases (in which there are no foreign demanders) are hardly realistic because price discrimination is impossible. Singer is correct about the realism of these cases: foreign demanders, after all, do exist. Nevertheless these cases are important for understanding the impact of a variable import fee. The bottom line-which Singer does not apparently dispute - is that if foreign oil producers have some degree of monopoly power, then a VIF will raise not only the price paid by domestic consumers but also the price charged by foreign producers.



Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability

Kiseok Lee, Shawn Ni, and Ronald A. Ratti

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No4-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
In this paper we argue that an oil price change is likely to have greater impact on real GNP in an environment where oil prices have been stable, than in an environment where oil price movement has been frequent and erratic. An oil price shock variable reflecting both the unanticipated component and the time-varying conditional variance of oil price change (forecasts) is constructed and found to be highly significant in explaining economic growth across different sample periods, even when matched against various economic variables and other functions of oil price. We find that positive normalized shocks have a powerful effect on growth while negative normalized shocks do not.



Forecasting the Demand for Energy in China

Hing Lin Chan and Shu Kam Lee

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No1-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
In this paper we use a cointegration and vector error-correction model to analyze the energy consumption behavior of China. In formulating a model suitable to China, it is found that not only conventional variables such as energy price and income are important, but the share of heavy industry output in the, national income is also a significant factor. With the help of a vector errorcorrection model, we predict that China will need approximately 1.42 billion tons of standard coal equivalent by the end of this century, representing a 44 percent increase compared with 1990.



Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II

David F. Hendry and Katarina Juselius

Year: 2001
Volume: Volume22
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No1-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
We describe the concept of cointegration, its implications in modelling and forecasting, and discuss inference procedures appropriate in integrated-cointegrated vector autoregressive processes (VARs). Particular attention is paid to the properties of VARs, to the modelling of deterministic terms, and to the determination of the number of cointegration vectors. The analysis is illustrated by empirical examples.



The Impact of Changes in Crude Oil Prices and Offshore Oil Production on the Economic Performance of U.S. Coastal Gulf States

Omowumi Iledare and Williams O. Olatubi

Year: 2004
Volume: Volume 25
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No2-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper investigates the effects of changes in crude oil prices and offshore oil and gas production on the economic performance of U.S. Coastal Gulf States Texas, Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi. The empirical results do not provide statistical evidence to reject the hypothesis that positive shocks to oil and gas prices and production variation increase the economic performance of these coastal Gulf States. However, the magnitude of the response to changes in prices varies across the states. In addition, the empirical results show significant differences in the duration of the lingering economic effects of price shocks and changes in production among the states. The duration varies depending upon whether the state is a net petroleum exporter or net importer, and whether the state has a diversified economic base or structure.




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