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The U.N. Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy: Response to the Challenge of the Global Energy Transition

Morris Miller

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-11
View Abstract

Abstract:
The world community is being forced to navigate a transition, over the next few decades, to a future that must entail a radical shift away from dependence on hydrocarbons. The pressure for change arising from the 1973 "oil price shock" is mounting with each year, despite the periodic respites characterized as "oil gluts."



Book Review - Oil Supply and Prices: What Went Right in 1980?

R. Glenn Hubbard

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No3-13
No Abstract



Book Review - Petroleum Tax Analysis: North Sea

Jim Moose

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No3-14
No Abstract







Managing the Low-Carbon Transition - From Model Results to Policies

Brigitte Knopf, Ottmar Edenhofer, Christian Flachsland, Marcel T. J. Kok, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Gunnar Luderer, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
Model analysis within the ADAM project has shown that achieving low greenhouse gas concentration levels, e.g. at 400ppm CO2-eq, is technologically feasible at costs of a few percent of GDP. However, models simplify the dynamics involved in implementing climate policy and the results depend on critical model assumptions such as global participation in climate policy and full availability of current and newly evolving technologies. The design of a low stabilization policy regime in the real world depends on factors that can only be partly covered by models. In this context, the paper reflects on limits of the integrated assessment models used to explore climate policy and addresses the issues of (i) how global participation might be achieved, (ii) which kind of options are available to induce deep GHG reductions inside and outside the energy sector, and (iii) which risks and which co-benefits of mitigation options are not assessed by the models.





Energy Sector Innovation and Growth: An Optimal Energy Crisis

Peter Hartley, Kenneth B. Medlock III, Ted Temzelides, Xinya Zhang

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.1.phar
View Abstract

Abstract:
We study the optimal transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy in a neoclassical growth economy with endogenous technological progress in energy production. Innovations keep fossil energy costs under control even as increased exploitation raises mining costs. Nevertheless, the economy transitions to renewable energy after about 80% of available fossil fuels are exploited. The energy shadow price remains more than double current values for over 75 years around the switch time. Consumption and output growth decline sharply during the transition period, which we thus identify as an "energy crisis." The model highlights the important role energy can play in influencing economic growth.



The Rise of Third Parties and the Fall of Incumbents Driven by Large-Scale Integration of Renewable Energies: The Case of Germany

Gert Brunekreeft, Marius Buchmann, and Roland Meyer

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Bollino-Madlener Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI2.gbru
View Abstract

Abstract:
The energy transition is dramatically changing the electricity supply industry in Germany implying two big trends. First, significant market entry by third parties (i.e., non-incumbents). Based on empirical evidence, we argue that the emergence of third parties is the immediate result of the large-scale integration of renewable energy sources. The electricity supply industry is changing quickly from a top-down, single-firm game to a decentralized multiple-player system, with far-reaching consequences for the governance and regulatory structure. Second, the incumbent players are facing disruptive challenges: under pressure of the energy transition, conventional centralized generation is losing profit margins very quickly. We analyze the disruptive challenges and sketch how the incumbents respond by splitting their activities into an old business, which is likely to be phased-out, and a new, future-oriented business: renewable energies, the distribution business, and customer-oriented solutions.



The Valley of Death for New Energy Technologies

Peter R. Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.3.phar
View Abstract

Abstract:
It is often claimed that a difficulty of raising investment funds prevents promising new energy technologies from attaining commercial viability. We examine this issue using a dynamic intertemporal model of the displacement of fossil fuel energy technologies by non-fossil alternatives. Our model highlights the fact that since capital used to produce energy services from fossil fuels is a sunk cost, it will continue to be used so long as the price of energy covers merely short-run operating costs. Until fossil fuels are abandoned, the price of energy is insufficient to cover even the operating costs of renewable energy production, let alone provide a competitive return on the capital employed. The full long-run costs of renewable energy production are not covered until some time after fossil fuels are abandoned.



Oil Subsidies and Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia: A General Equilibrium Approach

Jorge Blazquez, Lester C Hunt, and Baltasar Manzano

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: KAPSARC Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.SI1.jbla
View Abstract

Abstract:
In 2016, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced its Vision 2030 strategic plan incorporating major changes to the economic structure of the country, including an intention to deploy 9.5 GW of renewable energy in an effort to reduce the penetration of oil in the electricity generation system. This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact of such changes in the KSA, coupled with reductions in implicit energy subsidies. Based on a dynamic general equilibrium model, our analysis suggests that if the KSA government were to deploy a relatively small quantity of renewable technology, consistent with the country's Vision 2030 plans, there would be a positive impact on the KSA's long run GDP and on households' welfare. However, we demonstrate that if the integration costs of renewable technology were high, then households' welfare would be maximized at around 30-40% renewables penetration. In addition, we show that a policy favoring renewable energy would increase the dependence of the KSA on oil, given that a larger share of GDP would be linked to oil exports and so, potentially, to oil price shocks. Finally, it is shown that exporting significantly more oil onto the international market could have a negative impact on the international oil price and thus could offset the potential gains from the renewable energy policy.



Long-term endogenous economic growth and energy transitions

Victor Court, Pierre-André Jouvet, and Frédéric Lantz

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.1.vcou
View Abstract

Abstract:
This article builds a bridge between the endogenous economic growth theory, the biophysical economics perspective, and the past and future transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy forms that economies have had to and will have to accomplish. We provide an endogenous economic growth model subject to the physical limits of the real world, meaning that nonrenewable and renewable energy production costs have functional forms that respect physical constraints, and that technological level is precisely defned as the effciency of primary-to-useful exergy conversion. The model supports the evidence that historical productions of renewable and nonrenewable energy have greatly infuenced past economic growth. Indeed, from an initial almost-renewable-only supply regime we reproduce the increasing reliance on nonrenewable energy that has allowed the global economy to leave the state of economic stagnation that had characterized the largest part of its history. We then study the inevitable transition towards complete renewable energy that human will have to deal with in a not-too-far future since nonrenewable energy comes by defnition from a fnite stock. Through simulation we study in which circumstances this transition could have negative impacts on economic growth (peak followed by degrowth phase). We show that the implementation of a carbon price can partially smooth such unfortunate dynamics, depending on the ways of use of the income generated by the carbon pricing.



The Cost of Displacing Fossil Fuels: Some Evidence from Texas

Peter R. Hartley

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.2.phar
View Abstract

Abstract:
Although technological progress can alter the relative costs of different energy sources, fossil fuels inevitably will be displaced as depletion raises their costs and makes them uncompetitive. They may be displaced sooner if they are taxed to internalize negative externalities. Currently, wind generation or nuclear power, supplemented by bulk electricity storage, are the most feasible alternatives to fossil fuels for electricity generation. The ERCOT ISO in Texas provides a realistic model for examining the costs of replacing fossil fuels by wind generation and storage, and for comparing wind power with generation based on nuclear and storage. ERCOT is relatively isolated from neighboring grids, and wind power was almost a quarter of its total generating capacity at the end of 2016. Using the ERCOT example, we also discuss how the long-run configuration of the electricity supply system affects evolution away from a system dominated by natural gas.




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