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IV. The Economics of Gas Supply, The Effects of Decontrol Policy Options

Steven E. Muzzo

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No4-4
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Abstract:
Over the past nine or so years, the United States has focused a large portion of its national attention on energy concerns. Indeed, the world economy is in the midst of an economic revolution over the value of one of its most important inputs. A new economic reality-that once cheap energy sources that fuel the world economy are becoming more and more expensive-has forced much of the world, and especially the United States, to reevaluate its policies on energy sources and uses.



The Supply, Demand, and Average Price of Natural Gas under Free-Market Conditions

Jack W. Wilkinson

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No1-6
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Abstract:
Editor's note: The following paper is of particular interest because the model it summarizes is based an a market equilibration process that generates gas prices differently than the models discussed in our special issue on gas deregulation (October 1982). It should be pointed out that while this paper was reviewed by a panel of expert readers, it has not undergone the anonymous refereeing process that is standard for scholarly papers published in The Energy Journal.



The Natural Gas Industry in Transition

George H. Lawrence and Michael I. German

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No1-8
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Abstract:
After 25 years of field price regulation, the U.S. natural gas industry is moving to a deregulated field market. This transition period has been made more difficult because of the international recession, depressed oil prices, and statutory restraints on gas use that were originally designed under assumptions of declining gas supply.



Elements of Market Power in the Natural Gas Pipeline Industry

Harry G. Broadman

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No1-8
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Abstract:
As a result of the distortions that have beset natural gas markets in the wake of partial wellhead deregulation under the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 (NGPA)-the most visible problem being the existence of increased prices amid a glut of deliverable supplies-concern has mounted about whether the natural gas pipeline industry will perform in a socially efficient manner in the long run when field prices are completely decontrolled.In addition to transporting natural gas from the field to the city-gate, interstate natural gas pipeline companies have traditionally performed two functions. Granted private carrier status by the Natural Gas Act of 1938 (NGA), they both purchase gas shipments in upstream markets and resell them in downstream markets as well as match up gas producers who have available supply with distribution companies and wholesale end-users (direct industrial consumers and electric utilities) who have unfilled demand. In other words, as private carriers gas pipelines not only provide a gas transmission service but also assume the twin roles of gas merchandiser and broker.



Gas Supplies for the World Market

James T. Jensen

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-13
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Abstract:
The ability of natural gas to compete with other energy sources is increasingly favored by environmental and technological developments. Front a worldwide perspective, the gas reserves needed to satisfy this growing market are large (relative to gas demand) and are growing more rapidly. However, gets, unlike oil, is expensive to transport and many of the world's present gas reserves are in deposits that are too small or too remote to be of commercial value at present price levels. As a result, much of the supply will prove difficult to deliver to the markets that most need it, and the price consequences of market growth will vary from market to market.



Natural Gas in the U.S.: How Far Can Technology Stretch the Resource Base?

Cutler J. Cleveland and Robert K. Kaufmann

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No2-5
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Abstract:
We review the theoretical underpinnings of the exponential model, the amount of gas discovered per unit effort, a quantity called yield-per-effort (YPE), and estimate an econometric model that represents the historical determinants of the YPE for nonassociated gas discoveries in the lower 48 states from 1943 to 1991, the entire period for which the requisite data are available. Results indicate the YPE declines as the exponential function of cumulative drilling when short run changes in drilling effort, real gas prices, and shifts between onshore and offshore are accounted for. We explicitly test and reject the hypothesis that technological change has arrested or reversed the long run decline in YPE. We also discuss some alternative models of YPE that misrepresent the interplay of depletion and technical innovation, as well as the process of innovation itself, and the statistical and methodological shortcomings of the empirical analyses used to support several alternative models of YPE.



An Econometric Model of Oil and Gas Exploration Development and Production in the UK Continental Shelf: A Systems Approach

Alexander Kemp and Sola Kasim

Year: 2003
Volume: Volume24
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No2-5
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Abstract:
The petroleum supply process takes place in stages. Decisions at any stage are based on information obtained at the preceding stage. The present paper develops an econometric model incorporating the feedback structure of the process. The model framework consists of a system of simultaneous equations. Using UKCS data the model was estimated, tested for stability and predictive power, and used to conduct a structural analysis, investigating the effects of market conditions on activity levels in a mature hydrocarbon province. The results provide useful insights into the feedback nature of the petroleum supply process and the importance of market conditions to continued activity levels in a mature province.



Stochastic Mixed-Integer Programming for Integrated Portfolio Planning in the LNG Supply Chain

Adrian Werner, Kristin Tolstad Uggen, Marte Fodstad, Arnt-Gunnar Lium, and Ruud Egging

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.1.5
View Abstract

Abstract:
We present a new model to support strategic planning by actors in the liquefied natural gas market. The model takes an integrated portfolio perspective and addresses uncertainty in future prices. Decision variables include investments and disinvestments in infrastructure and vessels, chartering of vessels, the timing of contracts, and spot market trades. The model accounts for various contract types and vessels, and it addresses losses. The underlying mathematical model is a multistage stochastic mixed-integer linear problem. Industry-motivated numerical cases are discussed as benchmarks for the potential increases in profits that can be obtained by using the model for decision support. These examples illustrate how a portfolio perspective leads to decisions different than those obtained using the traditional net present value approach. We show how explicitly considering uncertainty affects investment and contracting decisions, leading to higher profits and better utilization of capacity. In addition, model run times are competitive with current business practices of manual planning.





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