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Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Stock Market: Do Sign and Size Matter?

Zeina Alsalman Ana María Herrera

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.3.zals
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Abstract:
We investigate the effect of oil price innovations on the U.S. stock market using a model that nests symmetric and asymmetric responses to positive and negative oil price innovations. We find no evidence of asymmetry for aggregate stock returns, and only very limited evidence for 49 industry-level portfolios. Moreover, these asymmetries do not match up well with conventional views regarding en-ergy-dependent sectors of the economy. Instead, asymmetries are more likely driven by the effect of oil price innovations on expected and/or realized demand. We inquire whether the size of the shock matters in that doubling the size of the shock more (or less) than doubles the size of the response, finding that the effect of a 2.s.d innovation is just about double the magnitude of the impact of a 1.s.d innovation. Furthermore, we find no support for the conjecture that shocks that exceed a threshold have an asymmetric effect on stock returns.



Oil Prices and the Renewable Energy Sector

Evangelos Kyritsis and Apostolos Serletis

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: The New Era of Energy Transition
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI1.ekyr
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Abstract:
Energy security, climate change, and growing energy demand issues are moving up on the global political agenda, and contribute to the rapid growth of the renewable energy sector. In this paper we investigate the effects of oil price shocks, and also of uncertainty about oil prices, on the stock returns of clean energy and technology companies. In doing so, we use monthly data that span the period from May 1983 to December 2016, and a bivariate structural VAR model that is modified to accommodate GARCH-in-mean errors. Moreover, we examine the asymmetry of stock responses to oil price shocks of different sizes, with and without oil price uncertainty. Our evidence indicates that oil price uncertainty has no statistically significant effect on stock returns, and that the relationship between oil prices and stock returns is symmetric. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and stock prices of clean energy companies.





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