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Mitigation Strategies and Costs of Climate Protection: The Effects of ETC in the Hybrid Model MIND

Ottmar Edenhofer, Kai Lessmann, Nico Bauer

Year: 2006
Volume: Endogenous Technological Change
Number: Special Issue #1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI1-10
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Abstract:
MIND is a hybrid model incorporating several energy related sectors in an endogenous growth model of the world economy. This model structure allows a better understanding of the linkages between the energy sectors and the macro-economic environment. We perform a sensitivity analysis and parameter studies to improve the understanding of the economic mechanisms underlying opportunity costs and the optimal mix of mitigation options. Parameters representing technological change that permeates the entire economy have a strong impact on both the opportunity costs of climate protection and on the optimal mitigation strategies e.g. parameters in the macro-economic environment and in the extraction sector. Sector-specific energy technology parameters change the portfolio of mitigation options but have only modest effects on opportunity costs e.g. learning rate of the renewable energy technologies. We conclude that feedback loops between the macro-economy and the energy sectors are crucial for the determination of opportunity costs and mitigation strategies.



ADAM's Modeling Comparison Project - Intentions and Prospects

Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Marian Leimbach and Nico Bauer

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-1
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Abstract:
Despite of the failure of the Copenhagen Summit in December 2009 the world will move forward with plans to limit greenhouse gas emissions much more aggressively than before. The Copenhagen Accord makes reference to the 2�C target as a potential goal for global climate protection. Moreover, it indicates that this goal will be evaluated by 2015 including a consideration of strengthening the long-term goal, referencing various matters presented by science. It seems that the scientific debate on the feasibility of a high chance of achieving the 2�C target will become important over the next few years. It is open to debate as to which extent such a low stabilization target can technically be achieved and at what costs. Therefore, a good understanding of all the major mitigation cost projections is of the utmost importance.



Technological Change and International Trade - Insights from REMIND-R

Marian Leimbach, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Michael Luken and Ottmar Edenhofer

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-5
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Abstract:
Within this paper, we explore the technical and economic feasibility of very low stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentration based on the hybrid model REMIND-R. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC and the scientific literature have analyzed some low stabilization scenarios but with as yet little attention being given to the regional distribution of the global mitigation costs. Our study helps to fill this gap. While we examine how technological development and international trade affect mitigation costs, this paper is novel in addressing the interaction between both. Simulation results show for instance that reduced revenues from fossil fuel exports in a low stabilization scenario tend to increase mitigation costs borne by the exporting countries, but this impact varies with the technology options available. Furthermore it turns out that the use of biomass in combination with carbon capturing and sequestration is key in order to achieve ambitious CO2 reduction targets. Regions with high biomass potential can clearly benefit from the implementation of low stabilization scenarios due to advantages on the carbon market. This may even hold if a reduced biomass potential is assumed.



Investments in Imperfect Power Markets under Carbon Pricing: A Case Study Based Analysis

Michael Pahle, Kai Lessmann, Ottmar Edenhofer, and Nico Bauer

Year: 2013
Volume: Volume 34
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.4.10
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Abstract:
This article addresses the question of how investments in imperfectly competitive electricity markets interact with a price on carbon. The analysis is based on a dynamic numerical Cournot model calibrated to the German market and focuses on (a) the level of investments and technology choice and (b) welfare impacts under optimal carbon pricing. As a special feature, we also restrict access to one technology (coal) to strategic players ("technological market power"). The main results are: (a) In the long-run prices reach competitive levels due to entry by the competitive fringe. If technological market power prevails, this can only be accomplished through high carbon prices. (b) Investment levels and technology choice show different patterns under market power and perfect competition. (c) Apart from driving investments, carbon pricing also renders old carbon-intensive capacities unprofitable and thus induces more extensive fleet turnover. (d) Welfare almost always increases as a result of carbon pricing.





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