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Journal of Japan Society of Energy and Resources
Article Title: Energy Demand Modelling for Developing Economies Using MAED-2 with Sectoral Decomposition: Bangladesh Case Study
Specialization Codes: 11 - Energy and the Economy, 12 - Energy Access, 13.3 - Regional Analysis (Asia), 15.2 - Sectoral Energy Demand & Technology,
Authors: Jubair Sieed, Ryoichi Komiyama, Yasumasa Fujii
Publication Date: September 10, 2020
Description: Access to affordable, clean energy and its growing consumption have often been directly linked with socio-economic development. As one of the fastest developing countries, Bangladesh has been experiencing stable GDP growth with an increasing trend for the last ten years. This growth has initiated excessive demand for energy, especially in the electricity sector. Within just a decade, both the total electricity generation capacity and per capita electricity generation have almost doubled. In order to meet this growing demand and keep pace with the development trend, sectoral demand growth projection for near and long-term planning and execution is essential. Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED)-2 tool provided by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was used in this study to predict the future energy demand in Bangladesh from the year 2020 to 2050. The energy-economic data of the year 2015 is considered as the base data. Future energy demands based on different socio-economic and demographic development scenarios have been projected and decomposed into sectoral demands that identifies the transition of a traditional agriculture-based society in to an industry-service oriented society. The insights obtained from analysis could be further utilized in policy development for energy security and climate change actions so that the development would be sustainable.
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