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Journal of Japan Society of Energy and Resources
Article Title: Long-term Projection of Hourly Electricity Demand with Sectoral Decomposition for Developing Economies: Bangladesh Case Study
Specialization Codes: 12 - Energy Access, 15.2 - Sectoral Energy Demand & Technology, 6 - Electricity,
Authors: Jubair Sieed, Ryoichi Komiyama, Yasumasa Fujii
Publication Date: July 10, 2020
Description: Electricity is one of the cleanest forms of final energy. With the growth of economy and industrialization, many of the developing countries face increased demand of energy and electricity. In order to meet the growing demand in an economically efficient way, proper prediction of hourly load and appropriate planning is important. Bangladesh being one of the developing countries, experienced steady economic growth and increasing electricity demand over the last decade. Electricity generation has increased more than twice and share of people having access to electricity reached from 47% in 2009 to 94% in 2019. So far, the household sector is the main contributor in electricity consumption. However, as the access to electricity reaches saturation, industry and service sectors would play significant role in coming decades in terms of both electricity consumption amount and pattern. In this study, we analyze the projected electricity demand from the year 2020 to 2050 at an interval of 5 years and decompose the total demand into sectoral contribution from household, industry, service and other sectors. In addition, the hourly load demand pattern of each sector has been synthesized so that the overall changes in the daily electricity demand pattern for different seasons could be identified.
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