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America's Energy Choices - Presidential Address

Sam H. Schurr

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
In trying to decide on a topic for this address I found myself wavering between a talk that would review this first, eventful year in the life of our Association as opposed to a subject which would be more substantive in nature. Substance finally won out, partly be-cause of personal preference, and partly because of the advice of others. The remarkable progress of the Association is something we are all proud of, but I believe that it has been-and will continue to be-well documented in many ways familiar to all of us. The forth-coming appearance in the near future of the Association's own professional journal will be a signal event in the unfolding story of the Association's successful development.



Coal Policy and Energy Economics

Richard L. Gordon

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
With the flurry of legislation in 1977 further inhibiting coal consumption and production, it became apparent to many observers that coal had joined oil, gas, and nuclear energy as a tightly regulated industry. Since by now this observation has been widely dissemi-nated, it seems most appropriate here only to summarize the nature of the barriers and their obvious implications. Then emphasis can be placed on the perspectives that economic analyses can provide for evaluating the issues.



Energy Prices and the U.S.Economy in 1979-1981

Knut Anton Mork and Robert E. Hall

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No2-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
For the second time in the decade, the U.S. economy is absorbing a large sudden shock in the world price of oil. From late in 1978 to June 1979, OPEC raised the world price of oil by closeto $9 per barrel. Western industrial nations could face a repetition of the serious recession of 1974-75 on close to the same scale. The increase in the total cost of energy inputs induced by this oil price increase is about two-thirds of the increase in 1974. The potential disruption to the U.S. economy and others is a similar fraction of what occurred in the earlier episode.



Residential Substitution of Off-peak for Peak Electricity Usage under Time-of-Use Pricing

Douglas W. Caves and Laurits R. Christensen

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No2-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
This article reports on the methodology, procedures, and conclusions from the first phase of our econometric analysis of the Wisconsin Time-of-Use (TOU) Electricity Pricing Experiment.' Dur-ing Phase I, which took place during the summers of 1976 and 1977, we confined our attention to assessing consumer ability and/or willingness to shift electricity usage from peak to off-peak (P/OP)



Crude Oil Resource Appraisal in the United States

Noel D. Uri

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No3-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
Prior to the Arab oil embargo that began in October 1973, the general feeling was that U.S. oil resources were almost limitless. Certainly there were some who were aware that the rate of crude oil produc-tion was falling and costs were increasing, but these perceptions were relegated to the background. Past experience supported the explorer's optimistic outlook concerning potential discoveries. The United States never seemed in danger of being less than the world's foremost producer of crude oil.



The Real Price of Imported Oil

Joy Dunkerley and John E. Jankowski, Jr.

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No3-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
The continual upward adjustment since 1973 in international quoted oil prices has been accompanied by two countervailing developments. The first is the weakening of the dollar against many national currencies. Since transactions in the international oil market are conducted in dollars, many countries were able to offer less of their national currency for each dollar of oil purchased. Second, sharply rising prices of all other goods and services in many oil-importing coun-tries diminished the impact of the relative rise in oil prices. Thus oil appeared as only one of a host of rising prices, perhaps rising more strongly than other prices but otherwise indistinguishable from a multitude of inflationary pressures. In other words, the real price of oil to importing countries may not have been rising as strongly in real terms as is suggested by price quotations from internationally traded crude oil. If this is the case, pressures for limiting oil imports and oil conservation generally would be weakened.



Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency in Standards for Household Appliances

J. Daniel Khazzoom

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
In the discussion of energy conservation, a great deal of attention has focused on mandated efficiency standards for cars and energy-using household appliances. (In this article, I will use the term "appliance" in a generic sense to cover household durables). Unfortunately, the estimates of energy savings predicted to result from these mandated standards are derived mechanically.' When mandated standards raise the appliance efficiency by 1 percent, demand is predicted to drop by 1 percent; when they raise efficiency by 2 percent, demand is predicted to drop by 2 percent; and so on. Examples of such results are found in reports by the Department of Energy (1979a, 1980) and by the Staff of the California Energy Commission (1979) on energy demand in California in the coming two decades.



The Treatment of Intermediate Materialsin the Estimation of the Demand for Energy: The Case of U.S. Manufacturing, 1947-1971

Richard G. Anderson

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Continuing increases in the price of energy have stimulated extensive research on energy demand and factor substitution in the U.S. economy. The manufacturing segment of the U.S. economy consumes approximately one-fourth of aggregate U.S. energy if measured by Btu consumption, and about 40 percent if measured by the Btu content of the fuel used for electric power generation (see Table 1). Hence, the manufacturing sector has been specifically targeted as a source of potential reductions in energy demand in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975,This paper was completed while the author was Assistant Professor of Economics at Michigan State University. Acknowledgment is given to Ernst Berndt, Robert Engle,Franklin Fisher. Jerry Hausman, James Johannes, Robert Pindyck, and Robert Rasche for helpful comments. The author retains responsibility for errors.



The U.S. Outlook for Supplemental Gas

Arlon R. Tussing

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Current forecasts of natural gas demand in the United States through the turn of the century are lower than projections made only a few years ago, and fall far short of the volumes the economy is technically capable of absorbing even with its existing stock of energy-using equipment.



Methods for Measuring the Oil Import Reduction Premium and the Oil Stockpile Premium

James L. Plummer

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No1-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
Energy problems can be differentiated into the following three broad categories:1. Oil supply disruptions. These can cause both large short-term price increases and huge short-term economic losses. Some of the price increase impacts may persist after the disruption is over. Energy policies to address this problem, such as oil stockpiles, must have impacts beginning in a zero- to five-year time frame.




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