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Residential Electricity Revisited

Hendrik S. Houthakker

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-4
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Abstract:
The following is a report on various attempts to update and improve an earlier analysis of residential electricity demand (Houthakker, Verleger, and Sheehan, 1974-hereafter referred to as HVS). To understand what is new the reader should first know what has been maintained, namely:1. the logarithmic flow-adjustment model which estimates this year's consumption from last year's consumption, this year's price and income, and possibly (though not in HVS) from other variables,2. the pooling of annual time series for 48 states using the error component approach of Balestra & Nerlove, 3. the use of a "marginal price" for electricity.The present paper may be regarded as a verification of the first of these hypotheses, and to some extent of the other two.



Energy Prices and the U.S.Economy in 1979-1981

Knut Anton Mork and Robert E. Hall

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No2-2
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Abstract:
For the second time in the decade, the U.S. economy is absorbing a large sudden shock in the world price of oil. From late in 1978 to June 1979, OPEC raised the world price of oil by closeto $9 per barrel. Western industrial nations could face a repetition of the serious recession of 1974-75 on close to the same scale. The increase in the total cost of energy inputs induced by this oil price increase is about two-thirds of the increase in 1974. The potential disruption to the U.S. economy and others is a similar fraction of what occurred in the earlier episode.



Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975

Knut Anton Mork and Robert E. Hall

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No3-2
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Abstract:
The rapid escalations of energy prices, in late 1973 and early 1974 and again in mid- and late-1979, have had major adverse impactson the U.S. economy. The energy price shock of 1973-1974 played a dominant role, by most accounts, in bringing about the deep recession and high inflation of the mid-1970s. In the most recent period, the full impact is yet to be seen, but it does not appear to be minor.In a previous paper published in this journal, (volume 1, number 2, April 1980), we presented the results of our efforts to quantify the economic impact on the U.S. economy of the July 1979 oil price increases.



Energy Price Increases and Macroeconomic Policy

Robert S. Pindyck

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-1
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Abstract:
A rising world price of energy imposes a macroeconomic cost on the United States in two different ways. First, to the extent that energy is both an important input to production and a consumption good, with limited elasticities of substitution and demand, the economy's production and consumption possibilities are necessarily reduced as energy becomes more scarce. Thus, even if an expansionary monetary and fiscal policy were successful in pushing the economy close to its full capacity level, the resulting real national income would be lower than if energy prices had notAn earlier version of this paper was presented at the CEPR Conference on Energy Prices, Inflation and Economic Activity, Cambridge, November 9, 1979. Work leading to this paperwas supported by the Center for Energy Policy Research of the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory, and that support is gratefully acknowledged. In writing this paper, I benefited considerablyfrom conversations with and comments from Olivier Blanchard, Stanley Fischer, Benjamin Friedman, Robert Hall, Franco Modigliani, Robert Solow, and an anonymous referee.



Coping with Supply Insecurity

M. A. Adelman

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No2-1
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Abstract:
Since the end of World War II, there have been six world oil supply disruptions, in 1951, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1979, and 1980-one year in six, and the frequency seems to be increasing. This danger will continue, for there are many sources of disruption. Although the probability of any one type in any one year is low, the chances of escaping them all for several years are also low.



I. Conceptual Framework - The Gordian Knot of Natural Gas Prices

Henry D. Jacoby and Arthur W. Wright

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No4-1
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Abstract:
Federal policy toward natural gas prices is once again the subject of national debate. Thought to be settled once and for all by the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 (NGPA), it reemerged as an issue in 1981. The proximate causes of the renewed controversy included candidate Ronald Reagan's campaign promise to seek wellhead price decontrol, and the Reagan administration's attempts (until March 1982) to find a workable decontrol proposal. But the wellsprings of the problem go deeper than this, to the history of gas price regulation, to changes in energy markets since 1978, and to serious defects in the NGPA itself.



The Supply, Demand, and Average Price of Natural Gas under Free-Market Conditions

Jack W. Wilkinson

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No1-6
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Abstract:
Editor's note: The following paper is of particular interest because the model it summarizes is based an a market equilibration process that generates gas prices differently than the models discussed in our special issue on gas deregulation (October 1982). It should be pointed out that while this paper was reviewed by a panel of expert readers, it has not undergone the anonymous refereeing process that is standard for scholarly papers published in The Energy Journal.



World Oil Prices and Economic Growth In the 1980s

Henry D. Jacoby and James L. Paddock

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No2-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
The world oil market is a forecaster's nightmare: seldom have so many knowledgeable observers been so wrong so often. Prior to 1973, few foresaw the magnitude of the price jump that was possible under disrupted conditions, or predicted the years of relative stability that followed. The Iranian revolution brought a similar surprise. On the other hand, in the fall of 1980 came the Iran-Iraq war; again a major price shock seemed at hand. Experts are still arguing about why it did not occur.



Energy Prices, Capital Formation, and Potential GNP

David F. Burgess

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No2-1
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Abstract:
A common theme of the rapidly developing literature on energy-economy interaction is that higher energy prices-initiated by external events such as OPEC-will permanently reduce the growth potential of net energy-importing economies even if full-employment conditions are maintained. According to this literature, in the absence of government measures to encourage saving and investment any initial adverse effect on the economy's real income at full employment (hereafter referred to as potential GNP) resulting from the need to pay a higher real price for imported energy will be compounded by secondary effects that reduce the rate of capital formation. This secondary or reverse feedback effect through capital may be the largest component of the overall impact on potential GNP.



The Price of Oil and Conflict in OPEC

Ali M. Reza

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No2-2
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Abstract:
The price-setting behavior of the oil-exporting nations is influenced by the various elasticities of demand for and supply of oil, and the long-run optimal price trajectory is also influenced by the rate of interest and reserves (see, for example, Pindyck, 1978, and Reza, 1981). Since it is generally agreed that the long-term price elasticity exceeds the short-term elasticity (in absolute value), measuring the latter can give a clearer picture of the former. The short-term price elasticity of demand for OPEC oil is also of interest because short-term financial constraints have apparently led at least some members of OPEC to weigh the short-run outcome of their pricing decisions more heavily. The issue addressed here is the magnitude of the short-run price elasticity of the demand for oil supplied by the OPEC core (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar) and of OPEC as a group.




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