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The Impact of the Oil Price Decline on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe

Jan Vanous

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No3-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
The effects on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe of the decline in the world market price of oil (and the subsequent likely decline in international prices of natural gas and coal) can be divided into three groups: direct, or first-round effects-the impact of the decline in net hard-currency export revenue/net import outlays for oil and other types of energy;"spillover" effects-the impact of potential Soviet cutback in the quantity of energy sold to Eastern Europe for nonconvertible rubles and at preferential prices; indirect, or secondary effects-the impact of oil price cuts on world market interest rates and thus the cost of debt servicing; the impact on Western economic recovery and thus the demand for imports from the Eastern bloc, and so on.



Comment on "Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks," the Energy Modeling Forum Comparison of Models

Harry D. Saunders

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-13
View Abstract

Abstract:
In its recently completed study of energy shocks, the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) took 14 macroeconomic models and, by carefully comparing them, evaluated a number of policies for counteracting the negative impacts of an oil shock. The study provides an exceptional look at this important question, and the summary report by Hickman, Huntington, and Sweeney (1987) is full of valuable insights. Energy economists with an interest in this field should view the summary report, along with all its supporting reports and individual modeler summaries (available from EMF), as a required reference.



On Economic Policy Responses to Disruptions: A Reply to Harry Saunders

Bert G. Hickman, Hillard G. Huntington and James L. Sweeney

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-14
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Abstract:
At its heart, Harry Saunders' Comment raises two principal criticisms I of the EMF study, "Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks";The EMF study held constant the disrupted-state world oil price; effects of policy actions on the world oil price were not included. Saunders faults the EMF for not explicitly examining these effects. But further, he implies that, in estimating effects of policy actions to counter the oil shock, modelers should have held constant the disrupted-state quantity of oil consumed in the US.



Chapter 21 - The Projected Influence of Extended Unit Service

M.E. Lapides

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-NoSI-21
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Abstract:
If the operational life of a nuclear power plant can be extended, decommissioning will be delayed. In effect, this is an alternative to decommissioning. Is this a sensible or desirable option? In this chapter, M.E. Lapides evaluates the cost, environmental consequences, and funding impacts of delaying for 20 to 30 years. One of his conclusions is that the impacts of decommissioning on any of these three categories will be insignificant to the decommissioning decision. A contrasting view was offered in Chapter 20.



The Marginal Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Richard S. J. Tol

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume20
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-4
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Abstract:
Estimates of the marginal costs of greenhouse gas emissions are an important input to the decision how much society would want to spend on greenhouse gas emission reduction. Marginal cost estimates in the literature range between $5 and $25 per tonne of carbon. Using similar assumptions, the FUND model finds marginal costs of $9 23/tC, depending on the discount rate. If the aggregation of impacts over countries accounts for inequalities in income of 3. Marginal costs per region are an order of magnitude smaller than global marginal costs. The ratios between the marginal costs of CO2 and those of CH4 and N2O are roughly equal to the global warming potentials of these gases. The uncertainty about the marginal costs is large and right-skewed. The expected value of the marginal costs lies about 35% above the best guess, the 95-percentile about 250%.



Early Emission Reduction Programs: An Application to CO2 Policy

Ian W.H. Parry and Michael Toman

Year: 2002
Volume: Volume23
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol23-No1-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
In the wake of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which if implemented would oblige industrialized countries to meet targets for greenhouse gases (GHGs) In 2008-2012, there have been several proposals to reduce emissions during the interim period. A concern for early reduction also arises in other policy contexts. This paper uses a series of simple models and numerical illustrations to analyze voluntary early reduction credits for GHGs. We examine several issues that affect the economic performance of these policies, including asymmetric information, learning-by-doing, and fiscal impacts, and we compare their performance with that of an early cap-and-trade program. We find that the economic benefits of early credit programs are likely to be limited, unless these credits can be banked to offset future emissions. Such banking was not allowed under the Kyoto Protocol. An early cap-and-trade program can avoid many of the problems of early credits, provided it does not require excessive abatement.



Diversity in Unity: An Empirical Analysis of Electricity Deregulation in Indian States

Anupama Sen and Tooraj Jamasb

Year: 2012
Volume: Volume 33
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol33-No1-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
As developing countries seek to improve their economic prospects, electricity reform has been widely viewed as a central part of this effort. While the focus of most research to date has been at economy or utility level, there has been much less research on regional outcomes. India presents a unique case, as its states share a common economic and political system, whilst having been given considerable flexibility in how they implement reform, thus allowing a comparative analysis of alternative approaches to reform. This study presents an econometric analysis of the determinants and impact of electricity reform in India, giving special regard to its political economy and regional diversity. It assesses how electricity reform in India has affected key economic variables that determine sectoral efficiency, prices and investment flows. We use panel data for 19 states, spanning 1991-2007, using dynamic panel data estimators. Results show that individual reform measures have affected key economic variables differently; thus the nature of reform in individual states would determine these economic outcomes. Findings suggest that due to political economy factors, outcomes have tended to be adverse in the initial stages of reform, as previously hidden distortions become apparent. The performance of reforms, however, may improve as the reform progresses beyond a `baseline' level.

Keywords: Electricity, India, Reform, Deregulation, Regional impacts



The Welfare Impacts of Rural Electrification in Bangladesh

Shahidur R. Khandker, Douglas F. Barnes, and Hussain A. Samad

Year: 2012
Volume: Volume 33
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol33-No1-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Lack of access to electricity has been considered a major impediment to the growth and development of rural economies. Thus, the provision of electricity and other forms of modern energy has been a priority for many development organizations, including the World Bank. However, few impact studies of electrification have taken the endogeneity of the grid connection into account. Using a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2005 of 20,900 rural households in Bangladesh, this paper examines the welfare impacts of household access to grid electricity after controlling for endogeneity bias. The econometric analysis shows that grid electrification has significant positive impacts on household income, expenditure, and education. The household gain in total income due to electrification is as high as 21 percent, with a 1.5 percentage point reduction in poverty per year. The results also suggest that the income and expenditure effects of electricity connection are higher for better-off households. Keywords: Rural electrification, Electrification impacts, Distributional impacts, Bangladesh



The Impact of Dynamic Pricing on Residential and Small Commercial and Industrial Usage: New Experimental Evidence from Connecticut

Ahmad Faruqui, Sanem Sergici, and Lamine Akaba

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.1.8
View Abstract

Abstract:
Among U.S. households, a quarter have smart meters but only one percent are on any form of dynamic pricing. Commissions and utilities continue to study the potential benefits of dynamic pricing through experimentation but most of it involves the residential sector. We add to that body of knowledge by presenting the results of a pilot in Connecticut which included small commercial and industrial (C&I) customers in addition to residential customers. The pilot featured a time-of-use rate, two dynamic pricing rates and four enabling technologies. Customers were randomly selected and allocated to these rates, to ensure representativeness of the final results. The experiment included a total of around 2,200 customers and ran during the summer of 2009. Using a constant elasticity of substitution model, we find that customers do respond to dynamic pricing, a finding that matches that from most other experiments. We also find that response to critical-peak pricing rates is higher than response to peak-time rebates, unlike some other experiments where similar results were found. Like many other pilots, we find that there is virtually no response to TOU rates with an eight hour peak period. And like the few pilots that have compared small C&I customer response to residential response, we find that small C&I customers are less price responsive than residential customers. We also find that some enabling technologies boost price responsiveness but that the Energy Orb does not.



Energy Price Reform and Household Welfare: The Case of Turkey

Fan Zhang

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.2.4
View Abstract

Abstract:
A price reform in Turkey increased the residential electricity tariff by more than 50 percent in 2008. The reform, aimed at encouraging energy efficiency and private investment, sparked considerable policy debate about its potential impact on household welfare. This paper estimates a short-run residential electricity demand function to evaluate the distributional impact of the tariff increase. The analysis allows heterogeneity in households' price sensitivity and the model is estimated using a nationally representative sample of 8,572 Turkish households. The results suggest that rich households in Turkey are three times as responsive in adjusting consumption to price changes as poor households are. In addition, the welfare loss of the poorest income quintile - measured by the change in consumer surplus as a percentage of income - is 2.9 times that of the wealthiest.




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