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The Price Elasticity for Gasoline Revisited

Rolando F. Pelaez

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No4-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Energy conservation has been a major goal of three administrations, yet disagreement about how to achieve it has hampered conservation efforts. Advocates of nonmarket rationing claim that gasoline demand is highly inelastic, and hence that higher prices would result mainly in substantial income redistribution. In contrast, economists typically point to the price mechanism as the best method for promoting conservation. Clearly the issue depends to a great degree on the price elasticity of demand for energy. Since nearly one-half of the petroleum consumed in the United States is used as motor fuel, this note focuses on the price elasticity for gasoline.



U.S. Gasoline Demand: What Next?

Badi H. Baltagi and James M. Griffin

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
Predicting the demand for motor gasoline over the last ten years has proven a most frustrating experience. Up until 1973, industry analysts felt considerable assurance in applying historical growth rates that averaged approximately 5 percent per year. Who in 1973 would have predicted that gasoline consumption in 1981 would fall below 1973 levels? For example, in 1973, Shell Oil Company predicted annual growth of 4.9 percent per year. Their forecasted value for the year 1981 exceeded the actual level by 42.7 percent (Shell, 1973). Unfortunately, errors of this magnitude are not as benign as predicting the point spread in a pro football game. To the contrary, both private and public policy decisions depend on the accuracy of such forecasts. Because of the importance of gasoline as the major refinery product, refinery expansion plans and retail marketing strategies are conditioned on such forecasts. Similarly, public policy decisions regarding auto efficiency standards, auto pollution controls, and oil import policy depend on gasoline demand forecasts. Current forecasts tend to be extremely pessimistic with respect to gasoline demand in the 1980s. Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates predicts a 14.7 percent decline in motor-vehicle fuel demand over the decade of the 1980s; Exxon's Energy Outlook predicts a 15.6 percent decline over the decade. Is such pessimism warranted? Are there key assumptions, which if changed, could produce a substantially different picture?



The Relationship Between Refined Product Imports and Refined Product Prices in the United States

John J Gonzales

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) emerged in the early 1970s as a dominating force in the world petroleum market, much effort has been devoted to investigating the relationship between U.S. demand for crude oil imports, the world price of crude oil, and the domestic price of crude oil.' Little attention has been paid, however, to the role of refined product imports in the U.S. market. My purpose is to fill this gap through an empirical investigation of the "competitiveness" of refined product imports in the domestic market. The focus will be on the motor gasoline, residual fuel oil, middle distillates, and jet fuel markets, as these four products account for most domestic product consumption.



Gasoline Demand Survey

Carol A. Dahl

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No1-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Gasoline demand, which represents almost a quarter of world petroleum consumption, has been the focus of a considerable amount of econometric work since the 1973 oil embargo. However, researchers and policymakers when considering this work are confronted with a bewildering array of elasticities and results that come from a variety of data sets and model types. This survey stratifies these elasticities for statistical analysis and development of summary elasticities, identifies basic issues, and illustrates a strategy for summarizing studies that should be useful to policymakers and researchers in any area of applied work. Because space prohibits discussing all of this work, this survey is limited to those studies that have estimates for gasoline demand, vehicle miles traveled, and miles per gallon.



Energy for Transport in Developing Countries

Joy Dunkerley and Irving Hoch

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
Transportation is the major market for liquid fuels in many developing countries, accounting on average for one half of total consumption. Unlike the other end-use sectors, possibilities for fuel switching in transport are limited, at least for the time being. Given the existing stock of transport equipment, virtually the entire increase in consumption of transport fuels for the next 15 years or so will involve petroleum products.



Petroleum Product Pricing in the Philippines

Armando Pestano

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume_9
Number: Special Issue 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-NoSI1-1
No Abstract



Petroleum Product Pricing in Thailand

Piyasvasti Amranand, Tienchai Chongpeerapien

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume_9
Number: Special Issue 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-NoSI1-2
No Abstract



Oil Products in Latin America: The Politics of Energy Pricing

Thomas Sterner

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No2-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper looks at the pricing of petroleum products in Latin America and compares the policies adopted in countries with different endowments and with different traditions as to state involvement in the oil industry. I find that, in contrast to the OECD countries, product prices are used extensively as instruments of policy and that in general the more oil a country has the lower are its domestic prices. They also tend to be lower in the presence of state monopolies.



Gasoline, Diesel and Motorfuel Demand in Taiwan

Christopher Garbacz

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No2-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
The logarithmic flow models generate elasticity estimates for prices that generally exceed estimates of recent studies both for the short run and the long run. This holds true over gasoline, diesel, and total motorfuel models. The linear gasoline results for price elasticity are in the range of previous estimates. In the logarithmic stock flow models, estimates of gasoline price elasticity exceed both short- and long-run estimates of previous studies. The liner stock flow model generates a price elasticity that is no different than zero (statistically) and an income elasticity that appears to be large in the short-ran.



CAFE OR PRICE?: An Analysis of the Effects of Federal Fuel Economy Regulations and Gasoline Price on New Car MPG, 1978-89

David L. Greene

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No3-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
Following a tripling of world oil prices in 1973-74, the U.S. Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 establishing mandatory fuel economy standards for automobiles and light trucks. Beginning at 18 MPG in 1978, the passenger car standards increased to 27.5 MPG by 1985. There has been considerable debate about the influence of the standards, as opposed to the gasoline price increases in 1973-74 and 1979-80, on new car fuel economy.




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