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The Economic Impact of Coal-Fired Versus Nuclear Power Plants: An Application of a General Equilibrium Model

Klaus Conrad and Iris Henseler-Unger

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No4-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the literature in the field of general equilibrium modeling has increased. For long-term energy projections, general equilibrium models are more adequate than standard econometrics in evaluating alternative economic policies in a theoretically consistent framework. The well-known structure and economic mechanism of those models makes it easier to analyze structural changes of prices and quantities demanded or supplied for a given data set of an economy, national income accounts figures, and trade balance effects. The dynamic formulation of these models via investment decisions and capital formation also enables an intertemporal interpretation of structural adjustment and growth processes.



Cutting CO2 Emissions: The Effects of Alternative Policy Approaches

John Whalley and Randall Wigle

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-7
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Abstract:
This paper starts from the premise that attempts to curtail global emissions of greenhouse gases are likely to be made in the next few decades. We discuss some of the possible international effects which could result from attempts to achieve such a cutback, and illustrate a methodology which we hope to extend, in subsequent work, to further evaluating the consequences of responding to the problem of global warming. We identify possible magnitudes of effects of cutting global CO2 emissions, and illustrate ways in which inter-country terms-of-trade effects and changes in trade patterns may occur.



Testing for Barriers to Energy Conservation -- an Application of a Vintage Model

Alan Ingham, James Maw and Alistair Ulph

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No4-3
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Abstract:
In this paper we use a sophisticated vintage model of the production structure of the U.K manufacturing sector to analyze the pattern of energy conservation over the period 1971-1987 and to test whether there is evidence of significant market imperfections which could act as barriers to energy conservation.



International Trade in Oil, Gas and Carbon Emission Rights: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model

Alan S. Manne and Thomas F. Rutherford

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No1-4
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Abstract:
This paper employs a five-region intertemporal model to examine three issues related to carbon emission restrictions. First, we investigate the possible impact of such limits upon future oil prices. We show that carbon limits are likely to differ in their near- and long-term impact. Second, we analyze the problem of "leakage" which could arise if the OECD countries were to adopt unilateral limits upon carbon emissions. Third, we quantify some of the gainsfrom trade in carbon emission rights. Each of these issues have been studied before, but to our knowledge this is the first study based on a multi-regional, forward-looking model. We show that sequential joint maximization can be an effective way to compute equilibria for intertemporal general equilibrium models of international trade.



Tax Reform and Energy in the Philippines Economy: A General Equilibrium Computation

Roy G. Boyd, Khosrow Doroodian, and Prapassorn Udomvaech

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No2-8
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Abstract:
This paper examines how energy tax cuts, offset with income tax increases, affect production, consumption, and total welfare in the Philippines economy. Our results show that energy tax cuts expand the energy and nonmetal mining sectors, but decrease output in the manufacturing, agricultural, and metal mining sectors. Consumption o all goods and services combined increases as the amount of energy tax reduction increases. Our welfare results, however, are mixed. Mile the welfare of the mid- and high-income levels increases, that of the lowest income level decreases. These results are robust with respect to changes in the elasticity of substitution in energy production as well as the elasticity of substitution in consumer demand. From the standpoint of economic efficiency, a policy such as this would enhance growth and aggregate income. From an equity standpoint, however, this policy is highly regressive in spite of the fact that the richest households pay proportionately more to finance the energy tax reduction.



The Greenhouse Debate: Econonmic Efficiency, Burden Sharing and Hedging Strategies

Alan Manne and Richard Richels

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No4-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
We address the issue of economic efficiency as it relates to climate change. We begin with a classical cost-benefit perspective. Mat is, we focus on emission trajectories which maximize net benefits. We then examine the consequences of adopting alternative decision making paradigms-for example, those based on limiting atmospheric concentrations so as to achieve an "ample margin of safety." We also consider the regional distribution of costs and benefits under alternative burden sharing schemes. Although the climate issue is often viewed from a global perspective, international negotiators will be acutely interested in how damages and mitigation costs might be distributed among individual regions. Finally, we address the issue of decision making under uncertainty. The challenge confronting today's policy makers is to identify it sensible hedging strategy-one that balances the risks of waiting against those of premature action.



Computable Equilibrium Models and the Restructuring of the European Electricity and Gas Markets

Yves Smeers

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No4-1
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Abstract:
More regulation, not less, is temporarily necessary, if effective, competition is to be established in network industries. This paradox places new requirements on computable models: they should provide realistic descriptions of technologies but also of markets and institutions. Industrial economics and computation of economic equilibrium can help achieve this dual requirement. This paper discusses their potential in the context of the deregulation of the European gas and electricity sectors. Some key elements of the European legislative process are first presented in order to point out the diversity of institutions that can emerge and to highlight the need to model institutions. Perfect competition equilibrium models although institutionally poor are argued to be useful for ex post analysis. Applications of the standard Cournot and' Bertrand paradigms in ex ante analysis of gas and electricity markets are reviewed next. Models combining market power and externalities are then discussed with reference to electricity restructuring. Finally multistage equilibrium models are introduced in the context of investment in gas and electricity. Computation remarks conclude the paper.



Adjustment Time, Capital Malleability and Policy Cost

Henry D. Jacoby and Ian Sue Wing

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-4
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Abstract:
The cost of meeting Kyoto-style emissions reductions is heavily dependent on the malleability of an economy's stock of capital and the number of years available for adjustment. Each year of delay introduces more emissionproducing activities that must be squeezed out of the system and shortens the time horizon for change, raising the carbon price required to produce the needed changes in capital structure. The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Assessment model is used to explore the effects of uncertainty in the degree of capital malleability in the short run, and to analyze how implied carbon prices vary depending on the time of credible commitment to emissions targets.



Technology Diffusion in Energy-Economy Models: The Case of Danish Vintage Models

Henrik Klinge Jacobsen

Year: 2000
Volume: Volume21
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No1-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
Technological progress is an important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological progress and diffusion of new technologies are among the reasons for diverging results obtained using bottom-up and top-down models for analysing the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological vintage models to describe technology diffusion. The focus is on short- to medium-term issues. Three different models of Danish energy supply and demand are used to illustrate the consequences of the vintage modelling approach. The fluctuating utilisation rates for power capacity in Denmark are found to have a significant impact on average fuel efficiencies. Diffusion of electric appliances is linked to economic activity and saturation levels for each appliance. In the sector of residential heat demand, fuel price increases are found to accelerate diffusion by increasing replacement rates for heating equipment.



The Effect of Market Reforms on Structural Change: Implications for Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in China

Karen Fisher-Vanden

Year: 2003
Volume: Volume24
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No3-2
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Abstract:
This paper assesses the role played by market reforms in shaping the future level and composition of production, energy use, and carbon emissions in China. Arguments have been made that reducing distortions in China s economy through market reforms will lead to energy efficiency improvements and lower carbon emissions in China. However, these arguments are based on partial and not general equilibrium analyses, and therefore overlook the effects of market reforms on economic growth and structural change. The results suggest that further implementation of market reforms could result in a structural shift to less carbon-intensive production and thus lower carbon emissions per unit GDP. However, this fall in carbon intensity is not enough to compensate for the greater use of energy as a result of market reforms due to higher economic growth and changes in the composition of production. Therefore, China s transition to a market economy could result in significantly higher economic growth, energy use, and carbon emissions. These results could have implications for other countries considering or undergoing market transition.




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