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Nuclear Power: Epilogue or Prologue?

Harold R. Denton

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No1-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Judging by the continuing stream of nuclear power plant cancellations and downward revisions of nuclear energy forecasts, there is nothing riskier than predicting the future of commercial nuclear power. U.S. Nuclear Regulation Commissioner John Ahearne (1981) likens the recent events affecting the nuclear power industry in the United States to a Greek tragedy. Others, particularly other nations, take a different view about the future.



Oil and Gas Supply Modeling under Uncertainty: Putting DOE Midterm Forecasts in Perspective

Carl M. Harris

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No4-4
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Abstract:
The original purpose of this study was to examine the midterm projections of oil and gas production generated by the 1979 version of the Department of Energy's Midterm Oil and Gas Supply Modeling System (MOGSMS) for the 1979 Annual Report to Congress.q These forecasts applied to conventional oil and gas, onshore and offshore, in the lower 48 states from 1985 to 1995, inclusive. The specific objective of the work was to quantify the sensitivity of these projections to potential uncertainty in some of the model's key elements. But more generally, this exercise is viewed as but one good example of how to estimate the uncertainty in forecasts coming from a large computer-based model.



Energy and Economy: Global Interdependences

William W. Hogan

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No4-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
This meeting, the Seventh International Conference of the International Association of Energy Economists (IAEE), finds us again in the midst of transitions in energy markets. Continued adjustments in oil demand, natural gas bubbles in Europe and North America, closures of refineries, and concerns about acid rain are just a few of the issues that reflect the turbulence and continued change in energy concerns and policy. This list of challenges suggests opportunities for energy economists to contribute their special perspectives to the clarification of issues and options. At an international conference, we can reinforce communications across national boundaries as we consider our related problems.



Missing Survey Data in End-Use Energy Models: An Overlooked Problem

David A. Swanson

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No3-12
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Abstract:
Although missing data are found in all types of data sets, surveys are particularly prone to produce data sets in which values of some respondent variables are missing (see, e.g., Cochran, 1977; Ericson, 1967; Kalton, 1983; and Hutcheson and Prather, 1977). Survey data collected for end-use energy demand models are no exception; high frequencies of nonresponse occur for many variables. This issue is, however, generally disregarded in the end-use literature, and analysts working with end-use models often discard cases in which values are missing for variables required by their models (see e.g., U.S. Government, 1983; Pacific Gas and Electric, 1983; Hirst and Carney, 1978; and EPRI, 1977). Discarding cases with missing values has important consequences. It implicitly assumes that the missing values occur randomly rather than systematically. If, however, missing values do not occur randomly, discarding cases with missing values will result in misspecified models and biased forecasts. Furthermore, by discarding cases, the detail appropriate for a given end-use model can be lost.



The Competitive Floor to World Oil Prices

M. A. Adelman

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No4-1
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Abstract:
Years ago, I suggested that there was no current or impending oil shortage. Growing consumption, static U.S. production, and other reasons offered then and now did not imply that prices would rise. That conclusion only made sense if the pressure on reserves was increasing, a situation that would be signaled by rising costs of maintaining and expanding output. There was and is no sign of this.



The NERC Fan in Retrospect and Lessons for the Future

Charles R. Nelson, Stephen C. Peck, Robert G. Uhler

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No2-7
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Abstract:
Projections of the future demand for electricitypublished annually since 1974 by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) have proved in retrospect to have been too high and the projected growth rate has been revised downward each year. Should forecasters have been able to do a better job of predicting the slowdown in electricity growth which has occurred since the early 1970s? The authors have attempted to provide partial answers to this question by comparing the published NERC projections with benchmark forecasts provided by simple models representing well-established techniques. The authors also discuss how modelers and planners can cope with uncertainty by using the techniques of decision analysis.



Market Design with Centralized Wind Power Management: Handling Low-predictability in Intraday Markets

Arthur Henriot

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.1.6
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Abstract:
This paper evaluates the benefits for an agent managing the wind power production within a given power system to trade in the intraday electricity markets, in a context of massive penetration of intermittent renewables. Using a simple analytical model we find out that there are situations when it will be costly for this agent to adjust its positions in intraday markets. A first key factor is of course the technical flexibility of the power system: if highly flexible units provide energy at very low prices in real-time there is no point in participating into intraday markets. Besides, we identify the way wind production forecast errors evolve constitutes another essential, although less obvious, key-factor. Both the value of the standard error and the correlation between forecasts errors at different gate closures will determine the strategy of the wind power manager. Policy implications of our results are the following: low liquidity in intraday markets will be unavoidable for given sets of technical parameters, it will also be inefficient in some cases to set discrete auctions in intraday markets, and compelling players to adjust their position in intraday markets will then generate additional costs.



EIA Storage Announcements, Analyst Storage Forecasts, and Energy Prices

Louis H. Ederington, Fang Lin, Scott C. Linn, and Lisa (Zongfei) Yang

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.5.lede
View Abstract

Abstract:
Exploring properties both of the EIA's natural gas and crude oil storage announcements and of analyst forecasts of the EIA storage figures, we find that analyst storage forecasts bring additional information to the market beyond seasonal patterns and past storage flows and that the market promptly incorporates analyst forecasts into oil and gas prices prior to the EIA announcements. Analyst's natural gas forecasts efficiently impound the available time-series information but crude oil forecasts do not. We further find that the price reaction to subsequent EIA natural gas storage announcements is contingent on the level of analyst forecast uncertainty as proxied by analyst forecast disagreement. Storage flows higher or lower than analysts had expected one week tend to be partially reversed the following week and analyst forecast dispersion regarding future forecasts increases following large forecast errors.



Do Jumps and Co-jumps Improve Volatility Forecasting of Oil and Currency Markets?

Fredj Jawadi, Waël Louhichi, Hachmi Ben Ameur, and Zied Ftiti

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI2.fjaw
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper aims at modeling and forecasting volatility in both oil and USD exchange rate markets using high frequency data. We test whether extreme co-movements (co-jumps) between these markets, as well as intraday unexpected news, help to improve volatility forecasting or not. Accordingly, we propose different extensions of Corsi (2009)'s model by including co-jumps and news. Our analysis provides two interesting findings. First, we find that both markets exhibit significant co-jumps driven by unexpected macroeconomic news. Second, we show that our model outperforms Corsi (2009)'s model and provides more accurate forecasts. In particular, while co-jumps constitute a key variable in forecasting oil price volatility, the unexpected news is relevant to forecasts of USD exchange rate volatility.



Modeling Multi-horizon Electricity Demand Forecasts in Australia: A Term Structure Approach

Stan Hurn, Vance Martin, and Jing Tian

Year: 2023
Volume: Volume 44
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.2.shur
View Abstract

Abstract:
The Australian Electricity Market Operator generates one-day ahead electricity demand forecasts for the National Electricity Market in Australia and updates these forecasts over time until the time of dispatch. Despite the fact that these forecasts play a crucial role in the decision-making process of market participants, little attention has been paid to their evaluation and interpretation. Using half-hourly data from 2011 to 2015 for New South Wales and Queensland, it is shown that the official half-hourly demand forecasts do not satisfy the econometric properties required of rational forecasts. Instead there is a relationship between forecasts and forecast horizon similar to a term structure model of interest rates. To study the term structure of demand forecasts, a factor analysis that uses a small set of latent factors to explain the common variation among multiple observables is implemented. A three-factor model is identified with the factors admitting interpretation as the level, slope and curvature of the term structure of forecasts. The validity of the model is reinforced by assessing the economic value of demand forecasts. It is demonstrated that simple adjustments to long-horizon electricity demand forecasts based on the three estimated factors can enhance the informational content of the official forecasts.




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