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Oil and Gas Supply Modeling under Uncertainty: Putting DOE Midterm Forecasts in Perspective

The original purpose of this study was to examine the midterm projections of oil and gas production generated by the 1979 version of the Department of Energy's Midterm Oil and Gas Supply Modeling System (MOGSMS) for the 1979 Annual Report to Congress.q These forecasts applied to conventional oil and gas, onshore and offshore, in the lower 48 states from 1985 to 1995, inclusive. The specific objective of the work was to quantify the sensitivity of these projections to potential uncertainty in some of the model's key elements. But more generally, this exercise is viewed as but one good example of how to estimate the uncertainty in forecasts coming from a large computer-based model.

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Energy Specializations: Petroleum – Markets and Prices for Crude Oil and Products; Energy Modeling – Forecasting and Market Analysis; Natural Gas – Markets and Prices

JEL Codes: Q41: Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices, Q40: Energy: General, Q21: Renewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply; Prices, Q20: Renewable Resources and Conservation: General, Q35: Hydrocarbon Resources

Keywords: Oil and gas production, Forecasts, Supply modeling, US, Uncertainty

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No4-4

Published in Volume 4, Number 4 of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.


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