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The NERC Fan in Retrospect and Lessons for the Future

Projections of the future demand for electricitypublished annually since 1974 by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) have proved in retrospect to have been too high and the projected growth rate has been revised downward each year. Should forecasters have been able to do a better job of predicting the slowdown in electricity growth which has occurred since the early 1970s? The authors have attempted to provide partial answers to this question by comparing the published NERC projections with benchmark forecasts provided by simple models representing well-established techniques. The authors also discuss how modelers and planners can cope with uncertainty by using the techniques of decision analysis.

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Energy Specializations: Electricity – Policy and Regulation

JEL Codes: Q41: Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices, Q42: Alternative Energy Sources, C53: Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods, Q35: Hydrocarbon Resources

Keywords: NERC, Energy forecasts, Electricity demand, Electricity prices

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No2-7

Published in Volume 10, Number 2 of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.


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