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Fairness Measures and Importance Weights for Allocating Quotas to OPEC Member Countries

Ahmad Saleh Alsalem, Subhash C. Sharma and Marvin D. Troutt

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No2-1
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This study considers what we call the "degree of optimality" of quota assignments for each OPEC member country based on certain proposed fairness "factors. We argue that these factors should ideally be based on energy and economic conditions that ought to be taken into consideration when production quotas are assigned. Thus, in this study, importance weights based on proven reserves, available productive capacity, GDP per capita and domestic investment needs are first obtained for allocating fair quotas to each member country in the period 1982-1990. Then a degree of fairness optimality index is computed for each member country and is applied to measure the performance of these countries during the quota system period. Our investigations reveal that OPEC appears to give greater importance to the energy factors, proved reserves and productive capacity, although domestic investment needs seem to play a significant role in determining the direction of quota assignments. Statistical tests reveal that all the weights are consistent over time. Finally, we observe that the member countries whose ideal quotas are based on low GDP per capita have higher degrees of optimality than those whose ideal quotas are based on proven reserves or available productive capacity. The computed importance weights and optimality measures can be used both by OPEC and energy analysts interested in OPEC behavior.

Low Stabilization Scenarios and Implications for Major World Regions from an Integrated Assessment Perspective

Detlef P. van Vuuren , Morna Isaac, Michel G.J. den Elzen, Elke Stehfest and Jasper van Vliet

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-7
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In order to limit global mean temperature increase to less than 2�C, long-term greenhouse gas concentrations must remain low. This paper discusses how such low concentrations can be reached, based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework (including TIMER and FAIR). We show that the attainability of low greenhouse gas concentration targets, in particular 450 and 400 ppm CO2 equivalent critically depends on model assumptions, such as bio-energy potentials. Under standard model assumptions, these targets can be reached, although the lowest requires the use of bio-energy in combination with carbon-capture-and-storage. Regions are affected differently by ambitious climate policies in terms of energy and land use, although stringent emission reductions will be required in all regions. Resulting co-benefits of climate policy (such as energy security and air pollution) are also different across world regions.

OPEC "Fair Price" Pronouncements and the Market Price of Crude Oil

Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Michel A. Robe, and Kirsten R. Soneson

Year: 2013
Volume: Volume 34
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.4.5
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OPEC producers, individually or collectively, often make statements regarding the "fair price" of crude oil. In some cases, the officials commenting are merely affirming the market price prevailing at the time. In many cases, however, we document that they explicitly disagree with contemporaneous oil futures prices. A natural question is whether these "fair price" pronouncements contain information not already reflected in the market price of crude oil. To find the answer, we collect "fair price" statements made from 2000 through 2010 by officials from OPEC or OPEC member countries. Visually, the "fair price" series looks like a sampling discretely drawn (with a lag) from the daily futures market price series. Formally, we use two primary methodologies to establish that "fair price" pronouncements have little influence on the market price of crude oil and provide little or no new news to oil futures market participants.

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