Econonomics of Energy and Environmental Policy
Article Details

IAEE Members and subscribers to Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy : Please log in to access the full text article.

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Abstract:
We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organizations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our paper provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook. We find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios.
Purchase PDF ( $35 )
Executive Summary: View

Keywords: Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.9.1.dans


Reference information is available for this article. Join IAEE or purchase the article to view reference data.


Published in Volume 9, Number 1 of The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.


 

© 2020 International Association for Energy Economics | Privacy Policy | Return Policy