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Evaluating Alternative Energy Policies: An Example Comparing Transportation Energy Investments

James K. Binkley, Wallace E. Tyner, and Marie E. Matthews

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No2-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Designing appropriate programs to deal with present and future energy problems faced by the United States has created a need for the evaluation and comparison of different policies. An important component of this is the generation of accurate information concerning the benefits and costs of alternative courses of action. Energy analysis is enormously complex, however, due to the pervasive influence of energy throughout the economy and the manifold factors that must be considered. Schmalensee has written that "discussions of energy policy, especially as regards new technologies, tend rapidly to become unwieldy because of the large number of serious complicating factors whose relevance is arguable" (1980, pp. 2-3). As a result of these complications, any information available to evaluate alternative energy policies Will almost of necessity be incomplete.



Coal Transportation System Modeling: The Case of Taiwan

Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-12
View Abstract

Abstract:
The world energy situation has been greatly influenced by the dramatic increase in world oil prices during the 1970s. To adjust to these increases, many countries have shifted to coal as a substitute for oil and have accelerated their research and development of renewable energy sources. Until nonconventional sources become widely available and economical, coal (along with nuclear power) will play a key role in the world's energy supply. Transportation and delivery, rather than production, pose the most difficult problems in meeting the greatly increased demand for coal.



Coal Transportation System Modeling-The Case of Taiwan: A Comment

R. K. Pachauri, Chia-Yon Chen, and Leena Srivastava

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
In his recent Energy Journal article, G. H. Tzeng emphasizes on the transportation aspects of increased coal use in Taiwan. He does not, however, offer much detail on the economic basis for the switch in National Energy Policy from imported oil to coal. While such a switch confirms that the exercise of rational fuel mix choices has found its due place in Taiwan, it seems appropriate to examine the efficiency of such a switch and its implications, especially for import balances. The new Taiwan energy policy Tzeng describes would increase coal consumption from 7.8 million tons (MT) in 1982 to 43.4 MT over the period ending in 2001. Ninety percent of this requirement would be imported. Of this, more than half would go to the electric power industry (23.8 MT by 2001). The total growth in coal consumption projected by Tzeng for this period amounts to 456 percent in 19 years.



Transport and Home Energy Use in Cities of the Developing Countries: A Review

Jayant Sathaye and Stephen Meyers

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-NoSI-5
No Abstract



The U.S. Demand for Highway Travel and Motor Fuel

Dermot Gately

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No3-3
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Abstract:
This paper, based on an econometric analysis of annual data since 1965, examines the prospects for US highway travel and fuel demand, disaggregated by vehicle type (cars and light trucks). Despite projections by the US Department of Energy (DOE/EIA) of virtually no change in highway fuel use in the 1990s, we project a growth rate of about 1.3% annually. DOE/EIA assumes extraordinarily rapid improvement in fuel efficiency and relatively slow growth in large trucks' vehicle miles. We project slower gains in fuel efficiency, for all types of vehicles, and faster growth for large trucks' vehicle miles.



CO2 Emissions from Major Developing Countries: Better Understanding the Role of Energy in the Long Term

Jayant Sathaye and Andrea Ketof

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper analyzes projected carbon dioxide emissions from the developing countries in 2025. The paper is based on analyses of energy use patterns, today and in the future, for nine major developing countries. These countries account for over two-thirds of the energy related emissions from the developing world The analysis indicates that emissions from these countries increase fourfold by 2025, but policies aimed to reduce emissions curtail them to a threefold increase. Further, more than three -quarters of the reduction in carbon emissions are achieved through efficiency improvements and the remaining improvements are achieved through fuel switching. Industry contributes the most to carbon emissions, followed by the transport and residential sectors. Transport displays the largest relative potential for carbon reduction (33%). The economic growth rates to which each country aspires increase oil demand from 7 million barrels today to 25 million barrels by 2025. While this level may not strain world oil supply, individual countries may not be able to import oil because of foreign exchange constraints. Thus despite efficiency improvements and fuel switching energy demand and carbon emissions from the developing countries increase severalfold by 2025.



Trade Liberalization, Transportation, and the Environment

H. Landis Gabel and Lars-Hendrik Roller

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No3-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper is an empirical study of the consequences of European trade liberalization for international transport demand and its environmental impact. The European market is broken into nine trading blocks, and trade flow equations for 29 industries are estimated for the period 1975-1985. A simulation of the change in volumes of trade byindustry and the distances trade goods must move generates an estimate of the increased transport demand in each industry. Data on the modal composition of transportation in each industry then allow an aggregation of demand across industries by transport mode-truck, train, sea, and inland waterway.The study concludes that the greatest increases will be in the demand for international transportation by sea, but that in terms of land-based transportation, there will be a large relative shift from rail to road. This will have a major adverse environmental impact which is discussed in the paper.



Irreversible Price-Induced Efficiency Improvements: Theory and Empirical Application to Road Transportation

I.O. Walker and Franz Wirl

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume14
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No4-12
View Abstract

Abstract:
Energy demand since 1986 seems inconsistent with the notion of constant income and price elasticities reported in the literature. Energy demand growth remained sluggish despite the simultaneous substantial reduction in real fuel costs and increases in real income. This investigation differentiates, as it were, two different price effects that should explain this apparent asymmetry in energy demand. The first effect is embedded in the technical efficiency and therefore largely irreversible. The second effect revolves around consumers' decisions and hence is reversible. This dichotomy of the price effect provides a suitable framework to study energy demand (in this instance, road transport). Moreover, the projections and policy recommendations following from this framework differ from the standard symmetric specification. Moderate price increases will affect consumers' behaviour, while only sufficiently high gasoline prices will trigger further efficiency improvements. The present low growth rates of energy demand mask a much higher growth at the service level, therefore energy demand growth may accelerate as these efficiency gains die out (if price levels or price expectations remain low).



Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe — A Simulation Analysis

Christian von Hirschhausen, Berit Meinhart, and Ferdinand Pavel

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No2-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper examines the options of transporting Russian gas to Western Europe, an issue that has thus far been dominated by a single transit country, Ukraine, which has recently witnessed substantial political turmoil. The completion of a new transit corridor through Belarus in 1999, the so-called Yamal-Europe pipeline, has modified the situation profoundly. The paper develops a model of different strategies of Russia and Ukraine, and derives the analytical solution for Russian gas exports to Western Europe, prices, and the expected profits for the players; we also calibrate numerical results and perform simulations. It turns out that Ukraine suffers a loss from the market entry of Belarus, Russia�s profits significantly increase, and Russia has an incentive to expand its gas transit capacity through Belarus further. The gas price for West European importers falls in the case of cooperative behavior of Russia and Ukraine, and/or new pipeline construction through Belarus. However, both developments would also imply a higher European import dependence on Russian gas.



Global Natural Gas Issues and Challenges: A Commentary

Michelle Michot Foss

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No2-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Interest in the potential for natural gas to emulate oil as a �global� commodity has grown. While international trade in natural gas in liquefied form has occurred for roughly 40 years, natural gas transactions largely take place in local and regional geographies. Growing demand among large consuming nations relative to global distribution of natural gas resources makes for a compelling story with respect to international, transoceanic trade outlooks. However, natural gas and the natural gas �value chain� are imbued with unique characteristics that require careful consideration by developers, researchers, regulators and policy makers. This article provides an overview and suggests key questions and issues for further research.




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