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Simulation of World Oil Market Shocks: A Markov Analysis of OPEC and Consumer Behavior

Richard F. Kosobud and Houston H. Stokes

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No2-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
One major determinant of crude oil price will be the question of whether or not OPEC can resolve its internal conflicts and act effectively as a coalition in restricting the quantities it will supply. For the economist, this question stands at the center of the energy problem; unfortunately, economic analysis has little that is definite to say about the question, and consequently little to say about how OPEC determines its posted price policies and the quantities of oil to be placed on the market. Economic analysis has also failed to provide any definite explanation of the fact that individual OPEC members have not been prone to seek net revenue increases through additional sales, even during periods of declining sales or during oil gluts such as the 1975 recession in OECD countries.



World Oil Price Increases: Sources and Solutions

Albert L. Danielsen, Edward B. Selby, Jr.

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
World oil prices have been high since 1973, compared to average production costs and historical norms, because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has functioned as a viable price-setting and output-restricting institution. Prices increased sharply in 1973-1974 and 1979, and in each case OPEC validated the higher price levels by subsequently cutting production. On the other hand, the importing countries have failed to establish institutions of their own that could mitigate price increases because they have not perceived the problem to be one of institutional control over prices. Instead, they have tended to view high oil prices as the result of resource scarcity. Their responses have been predominantly intermediate to long term, stockpiling for an embargo, encouraging conservation, and promoting the development of alternative energy



Real Oil Prices from 1980 to 1982

Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No3-8
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Abstract:
In the early 1980s, soft world oil markets were accompanied by two important and unforeseen world economic developments: stagnant economic growth and an appreciating dollar. The virtual standstill in economic growth from 1980 to 1982 was well off the 3 percent-plus growth path many analysts had anticipated. This experience, coupled with large shifts in oil inventory holdings by consumers (and perhaps increased consumer responses to oil prices), has led to a steady accumulation of unused productive capacity in the world oil market.



Prospects for a Tighter World Oil Market

Edward W. Erickson

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-1
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Abstract:
Once again, the world oil market has failed to behave according to expectation. This time, the predictions of sharp price drops did not materialize-nor did previous forecasts of continuing escalation. This ongoing divergence between expectations and reality is becoming standard-as is the remarkable resiliency in the position and behavior of Saudi Arabia.



Prospects for the World Oil Market

S. Fred Singer

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-3
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Abstract:
This essay recapitulates a recent review article on world oil pricing.It also summarizes my own thinking and writing about oil problems over the last decade.In brief, I maintain that the first price jump (of 1973-1974), from about $3 to $12 per barrel, represents the "correct" adjustment from the point of view of the "core" producing countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arabs Emirates), whose objective it should be to maximize profits over time. (I agree with Erickson and other analysts that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE are the swing producers that set the price.)



An Unstable World Oil Market

M. A. Adelman

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-4
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Abstract:
There is a permanent surplus because huge low-cost reserves are available for development. The cartel keeps them undeveloped to maintain the price. Their power is great, but they are a "clumsy cartel" and sometimes overreact to produce a shortage. Hence the future is cloudy and threatening, like the recent past.



The World Oil Market (WOM) Model: An Assessment of the Crude Oil Market Through 2000

Lorents Lorentsen and Kjell Roland

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No1-2
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Abstract:
The great demand for oil price forecasts has resulted in extensive discussion of possible behavioral and structural relationships to describe this jerky market. On the supply side, much attention has been focused on the inner life of OPEC. Is it or not a cartel? Is it a cartel with a competitive fringe? How strong is the tension between high and low absorbers? Are the depletion policies derived from myopic cash requirements or from long-term optimization schemes?



The World Oil Market: An Examination Using Small-Scale Models

David Jay Green

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No3-2
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Abstract:
This article presents the results of a series of exercises in the use of small-scale models to explain the spot price of crude oil. Small scale modeling-the use of a limited number of equations-involves a number of disadvantages: many interesting questions will have to be ignored and often a sense of realism may be sacrificed. However, small-scale models are an essential part of economic research. Compared to large, multi-equation models, small-scale models are often transparent-causal relations are clearly visible. In addition, small-scale models can often be easily updated and reexamined in the light of new information or assumptions. This is particularly important in policy-making when time and clear communication are at a premium.



The Target Capacity-Utilization Model of OPEC and the Dynamics of the World Oil Market

Stephen G. Powell

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No1-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Modeling the world oil market became a widespread concern after the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 and the resulting four-fold increase in the price of crude oil. By the late seventies, when the Energy Modeling Forum began its study of world oil models, at least thirty publicly available models were in existence. The pace of development of new models has slowed somewhat in the eighties, a result of reduced funding for energy studies and probably a better appreciation within the modeling community of the difficulties inherent in the activity.



Is the World Oil Market "One Great Pool"?

Robert J. Weiner

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No3-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Is there one, global market for crude oil? This appears to be the assumption made by most petroleum economists, stated succinctly by Adelman in a recent issue of The Energy Journak "The world oil market, like the world ocean, is one great pool" (July 1984, p. 5). Policymakers have often implicitly held the opposite assumption - that the world market is fragmented - as evidenced by the efforts of many importing-country governments to seek special arrangements for "secure supply" from exporters in the 1970s and early 1980s. Likewise, oil exporters have sought "secure outlets" for their crude in the late 1980s and early 1990s. These arrangements make no sense if the world crude oil market is integrated. In a similar fashion, a policy of diversifying suppliers, which is practised by many importers now, is senseless in a globally unified market.




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