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The Target Capacity-Utilization Model of OPEC and the Dynamics of the World Oil Market

Modeling the world oil market became a widespread concern after the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 and the resulting four-fold increase in the price of crude oil. By the late seventies, when the Energy Modeling Forum began its study of world oil models, at least thirty publicly available models were in existence. The pace of development of new models has slowed somewhat in the eighties, a result of reduced funding for energy studies and probably a better appreciation within the modeling community of the difficulties inherent in the activity.

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Energy Specializations: Petroleum – Markets and Prices for Crude Oil and Products; Energy Security and Geopolitics – International Energy Organizations

JEL Codes: Q38: Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy, L71: Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels, C58: Financial Econometrics

Keywords: World oil market, Target capacity-utilization model, OPEC, Oil prices

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No1-6

Published in Volume 11, Number 1 of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.


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