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Oil and Gas Supply Modeling under Uncertainty: Putting DOE Midterm Forecasts in Perspective

Carl M. Harris

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No4-4
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Abstract:
The original purpose of this study was to examine the midterm projections of oil and gas production generated by the 1979 version of the Department of Energy's Midterm Oil and Gas Supply Modeling System (MOGSMS) for the 1979 Annual Report to Congress.q These forecasts applied to conventional oil and gas, onshore and offshore, in the lower 48 states from 1985 to 1995, inclusive. The specific objective of the work was to quantify the sensitivity of these projections to potential uncertainty in some of the model's key elements. But more generally, this exercise is viewed as but one good example of how to estimate the uncertainty in forecasts coming from a large computer-based model.



Severance Taxes and the Government's Share of Value from Oil and Gas Production

John Lohrenz and John A. Pederson

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-NoSI-17
No Abstract





Failure in the Oil Patch: An Examination of the Production and Oil Field Services Industries

Harlan D. Platt and Marjorie A. Platt

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No3-3
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Abstract:
A substantial share of domestic energy supplies is produced by the oil and gas production industry. The oil field services industry provides valuable assistance to these exploration and production companies. The failure rates in both industries have increased recently. Failure rates in the two industries were modeled as a function of general economic conditions, industry financial conditions, and, in the case of the service industry, the failure rate in the production industry. The failure rate in the production industry was most sensitive to general economic conditions; while changes in the rate of drilling success led to the largest percentage change in the failure rate in the oil field services industry. The oil field service industry's failure rate was also significantly related to the failure rate in the production industry, thus indicating a spillover effect. Policymakers and lending institutions that finance and regulate these vital energy supply industries may benefit from the empirical results.



Are Decline Rates Really Exponential? Evidence From the UK Continental Shelf

A.G. Kemp and A.S. Kasim

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No1-2
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Abstract:
Understanding of oil and gas production decline rates is important in order to predict future behaviour and give policy guidelines. Most studies propose exponential and/or hyperbolic decline rates. Econometric techniques are extensively used in the present study to establish that logistic decline rates best fit the UKCS data and that the majority of fields have experienced complex logistic decline. Newer fields with relatively smaller reserves were found to have higher annual mean decline and decline decelerating rates � a property that poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the industry.





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