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Residential Energy Use in the OECD

Lee Schipper and Andrea N. Ketoff

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No4-6
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Abstract:
In this article we describe the evolution of residential energy use in OECD countries over the 1970-1982 period. We focus on European countries but refer also to findings for the United States, Canada, and Japan. We quantify the changes in energy consumption (particularly those that occurred in response to the great price shocks of 1973-1974 and 1979-1981), assess the permanency of these changes through 1982, and speculate on trends through 1983 on the basis of preliminary data. This analysis summarizes the results of a continuing project (Schipper, Ketoff, and Kahane, 1985) to identify, analyze, and monitor residential energy use in nearly a dozen OECD countries (Canada, Denmark, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States).



The Economics of International Oil Sharing

George Horwich and David Leo Weimer

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No4-2
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Abstract:
Fifteen years after the 1973-74 oil embargo, two of the programs designed by consuming countries to cope with oil disruptions are still in place. One is the strategic stockpiles of oil owned or controlled by the governments of the industrial nations. The other is the oil-sharing plan of the International Energy Agency. In fact, both programs received their impetus from the IEA, which was formed in 1974 by the United States, Canada, most Western European countries (except France), Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. The TEA requires signatory countries to hold oil stocks equal to ninety days' imports of oil (interpreted generally as an amount over and above normal working stocks). This has largely been accomplished. Oil sharing, however, is to be imposed only in the event of oil-supply cutoffs of 7 percent or more to any individual member or the group as a whole. Although petitioned several times by individual countries, sharing has never been implemented. Neither has the program been systematically evaluated by a task force outside the IEA. This is the purpose of the study which this paper draws upon (Horwich and Weimer, eds., 1988).



Energy Supply in the 1990s and Beyond

Subroto

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No1-2
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Abstract:
I am both honored and pleased to be invited to address this, the 11th Annual Conference of the International Association for Energy Economics. Honored, because your Association is a body whose gatherings are always marked by the distinction of the participants, drawn from the ranks of the oil industry, other energy sectors, the academic world, international institutions and government departments. Accordingly, the presentations of the speakers have an impact which extends far beyond the bounds of your membership.



The Cost of Switching Electricity Generation From Coal to Nuclear Fuel

Maria R. Virdis and Michael Rieber

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No2-7
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Abstract:
The Western European and Japanese nuclear power cost advantage over coal-fired electricity generation has been used, particularly since global warming became an issue, to counterpoint the U.S. experience - where the advantage is not apparent. Using OECD methodology, this paper examines the OECD assumptions and, as necessary, replaces them with European/lapanese practice. Additionally, for comparison with the U.S., market conditions replace statist controls. With the revised assumptions, the OECD data are resimulated yielding a severe reduction or reversal of the European/Japanese nuclear to coal advantage. Since the new generation is only developmental, existing technologies are used.



Manufacturing Energy Use in Eight OECD Countries: Trends through 1988

Richard B. Howarth and Lee Schipper

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No4-2
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Abstract:
This paper reviews the evolution of manufacturing energy use in eight industrialized nations: West Germany, Denmark, France, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Manufacturing energy use fell in these nations by 16% between 1973 and 1988 while manufacturing value-added increased by 41%. Reduced energy intensities in six industry groups -- paper and pulp; chemicals; stone, clay and glass; iron and steel; nonferrous metals; and other manufacturing -- were the primary source of this apparent decoupling of energy use and output. Between 1973 and 1988, intensity reductions would have driven down sectoral energy use by 32% if the level and composition of output had remained constant. Structural change, or shifts in the product mi, would have reduced energy use by 11% if the total level of output and the energy intensities of each industry group had remained constant.



OECD Oil Demand Dynamics: Trends and Asymmetries

William W. Hogan

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No1-6
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Abstract:
Oil market data of the 1980s reject a simple, symmetric reduced-form model of dynamic oil demand in the OECD countries. Tests of price asymmetric long-run demand models produce ambiguous results. The pooled time series estimations find near unitary output elasticities, and reject linear demand models in favor of constant elasticity formulations. Despite large differences in product prices and crude prices, the data cannot reject use of a crude price model fir aggregate oil demand. A reduced-form model symmetric in product prices but with technology trends for non-price oil conservation compares favorably with other formulations, and provides slightly lower projections of future oil demand intensity. However, even these lower econometric projections imply substantial increases in aggregate oil demand, increases which exceed those found in the conventional judgmental estimates.



The Structure and Intensity of Energy Use: Trends in Five OECD Nations

Richard B. Howarth, Lee Schipper, and Bo Andersson

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No2-2
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Abstract:
Ths paper examines trends in the structure and intensity of final energy demand in five OECD nations between 1973 and 1988. Our focus is on primary energy use, which weights fuels by their thermal content and multiplies district heat and electricity by factors of 1.15 and 3.24 to approximate the losses that occur in the conversion and distribution of these energy carriers. Growth in the level of energy-using activities, given 1973 energy intensities (energy use per unit of activity), would have raised primary energy use by 46% in the U. S., 42%, in Norway, 33% in Denmark, 37% in West Germany, and 53% in Japan. Reductions in end-use energy intensities, given 1973 activity levels, would have reduced primary energy use by 19% in the U.S., 3% in Norway, 20% in Denmark, 15% in West Germany, and 14% in Japan. Growth in national income paralelled increases in a weighted index of energy-using activities in the U. S., West Germany, and Denmark but substantially outstripped activity growth in Norway and Japan. We conclude that changes in the structure of a nations economy may lead to substantial changes in its energy/GDP ratio that art? unrelated to changes in the technical efficiency of energy utilization. Similarly, changes in energy intensities may be greater or less than the aggregate change in the energy/GDP ratio of a given country, a further warning that this ratio may be an unreliable indicator of technical efficiency.



Oil Demand in the Industrialized Countries

Joyce Dargay and Dermot Gately

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-4
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Abstract:
This paper surveys OECD energy and oil demand over the past three decades, analyzing the different paths of transportation oil, non-transportation oil, and non-oil energy-both over time, and relative to income growth. We review both the OECD as a whole, and make regional comparisons within the OECD. We focus especially on the price-irreversibility of oil demand: why oil demand has not surged now that oil prices have returned to pre-1974 levels.Among our conclusions are the following. Mere has been an asymmetric, smaller demand response to the price decreases of the 1980s than to the price increases of the 1970s. We expect a smaller demand response to future price increases than to those of the 1970s. The demand response to future income growth will be not substantially smaller than in the past. Finally, given the prospect of growing dependence on OPEC oil, in the event of a major disruption the lessened responsiveness of demand to price increases could cause dramatic price increases and serious macroeconomic effects.



World Oil Resources, Reserves and Production

Peter R. Odell

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-6
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Abstract:
Recent estimates of limited oil resources as constituting a constraint on the future of oil, lack validity. The issue is unimportant for the oil market for 50 years. Similarly, fears for the adequacy of annual additions to reserves are unfounded: the world is running into oil, not out of it.By contrast, the geography of reserves development is important. Twothirds of reserves are in the Middle East, but 85% of these are irrelevant to global production to 2010, given the potential in OECD and non-OPEC developing countries, and the maintenance of the current oil price.Thus, demand for Middle East oil will remain frustratingly modest. Efforts to expand production, necessarily in cooperation with major oil corporations, will regenerate fears elsewhere for supply security and create prospects for regionalising global oil around the three groupings of OECD countries, to which the non-Middle East OPEC members will adhere.



Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries

Knut Anton Mork, Oystein Olsen, and Hans Terje Mysen

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No4-2
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Abstract:
The correlations between oil-price movements and GDP fluctuations are investigated for the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany (West), France, the United Kingdom, and Norway. The responses to price increases and decreases are allowed to be asymmetric. Bivariate correlations as well as partial correlations within a reduced-form macroeconomic model are considered. The correlations with oil-price increases are negative and significant for most countries, but positive for Norway, whose oil-producing sector is large relative to the economy as a whole. The correlations with oil-price decreases are mostly positive, but significant only for the United States and Canada. Most countries show evidence of asymmetric effects, with Norway again as an exception.




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