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Carbon Sequestration in Global Forests Under Different Carbon Price Regimes

Brent Sohngen and Roger Sedjo

Year: 2006
Volume: Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
Number: Special Issue #3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-6
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Abstract:
This paper examines the potential role of carbon sequestration in forests under a range of exogenously chosen carbon price paths. The price paths were chosen to simulate several different climate change policies. The results indicate that global sequestration could range from 48�147 Pg C by 2105 for carbon prices ranging from $100 to more than $800 per t C by the end of the century. The timing of sequestration is found to be sensitive to the assumed carbon price path. Low initial carbon prices ($10 - $20 per t C in 2010) followed by rapid price increases, as might occur if policy makers try to stabilize future concentrations, suggest little, if any, sequestration during the next 20 years (-0.2 to 4.5 Pg C). If policy makers develop policies that support higher initial carbon prices, ranging from $75 to $100 per t C, 17 to 23 Pg C could be sequestered in forests over the next 20 years. Overall, our results indicate that forestry is not an efficient stopgap measure for long-term policy goals, but that it is instead an important long-term partner with other mitigation options.



GHG Mitigation Potential, Costs and Benefits in Global Forests: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Approach

Jayant Sathaye, Willy Makundi, Larry Dale, Peter Chan, and Kenneth Andrasko

Year: 2006
Volume: Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
Number: Special Issue #3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-7
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Abstract:
This paper reports on the global potential for carbon sequestration in forest plantations, and the reduction of carbon emissions from deforestation, in response to six carbon price scenarios from 2000 to 2100. These carbon price scenarios cover a range typically seen in global integrated assessment models. The world forest sector was disaggregated into ten regions, four largely temperate, developed regions: the European Union, Oceania, Russia, and the United States; and six developing, mostly tropical, regions: Africa, Central America, China, India, Rest of Asia, and South America. Three mitigation options�long-and short-rotation forestry, and the reduction of deforestation�were analyzed using a global dynamic partial equilibrium model (GCOMAP). Key findings of this work are that cumulative carbon gain ranges from 50.9 to 113.2 Gt C by 2100, higher carbon prices early lead to earlier carbon gain and vice versa, and avoided deforestation accounts for 51 to 78% of modeled carbon gains by 2100. The estimated present value of cumulative welfare change in the sector ranges from a decline of $158 billion to a gain of $81 billion by 2100. The decline is associated with a decrease in deforestation.



Impact of Carbon Prices on Wholesale Electricity Prices and Carbon Pass-Through Rates in the Australian National Electricity Market

Phillip Wild, William Paul Bell, and John Foster

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.3.pwil
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Abstract:
This paper investigates the effect of a carbon price on wholesale electricity prices and carbon-pass-through rates in the states comprising the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). The methodology utilize an agent-based model, which contains many features salient to the NEM including intra-state and inter-state transmission branches, regional location of generators and load centres and accommodation of unit commitment features. The model uses a Direct Current Optimal Power Flow (DC OPF) algorithm to determine optimal dispatch of generation plant, power flows on transmission branches and wholesale prices. The results include sensitivity analysis of carbon prices on wholesale prices and carbon pass-through rates for different states within the NEM.



Carbon Price instead of Support Schemes: Wind Power Investments by the Electricity Market

Marie Petitet, Dominique Finon, and Tanguy Janssen

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.4.mpet
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Abstract:
This paper studies wind power development within electricity markets with a significant carbon price as the sole incentive. Simulation of electricity market and investment decisions by System Dynamics modelling is used to trace the evolution of the electricity generation mix over a 20-year period from an initially thermal system. A range of carbon prices is tested to determine the value above which market-driven development of wind power becomes economically possible. This requires not only economic competitiveness in terms of cost-price, but also profitability versus traditional fossil-fuel technologies. Results stress that wind power is profitable for investors only if the carbon price is significantly higher than the price required for making wind power MWh's cost-price competitive on the basis of levelized costs. In this context, the market-driven development of wind power seems only possible if there is a strong commitment to climate policy, reflected in a stable and high carbon price. Moreover, market-driven development of wind power becomes more challenging if nuclear is part of investment options. Keywords: Electricity market, Renewables, Investment, Carbon price, System dynamics modelling.



An Estimation of Market-Based Carbon-Emission Prices Using Comparative Analogy: A Korean Case

Saedaseul Moon, Deok-Joo Lee, Taegu Kim, and Kyung-Taek Kim

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: The New Era of Energy Transition
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI1.smoo
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Abstract:
In 2015, Korea became one of the pioneering countries to implement ETS nationwide in Asia. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the market-based prices of carbon credits in Korea by using a comparative analogy approach. In this paper, the comparative analogy is applied as follows: Based on the assumption that the factors affecting carbon prices would be same with the those of EU ETS which is the most matured market in the world, we attempt to estimate the market-based carbon prices of Korea with the estimation model obtained by using the data from EU ETS. After estimating the market-based price of carbon in Korea, we compare the estimated price to the actual observed prices and analyze the reasons why there existed the gap between both prices. Furthermore, we examine the properties of the estimated market-based price with respect to the changes of factors affecting the carbon price through sensitivity analysis



On the CO2 Emissions Determinants During the EU ETS Phases I and II: A Plant-level Analysis Merging the EUTL and Platts Power Data

Benoît Chèze, Julien Chevallier, Nicolas Berghmans, and Emilie Alberola

Year: 2020
Volume: Volume 41
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.4.bche
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Abstract:
This article studies ex-post the CO2 emissions determinants during 2005�2012 by resorting to an original database merging the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL) with the World Electric Power Plants (WEPP) database maintained by Platts. We estimate the main drivers of CO2 emissions for the 1,453 power plants included in the EU ETS using plant-level panel data. During phases I and II, there has been a debate about whether the economic crisis was ultimately the only factor behind the fall in CO2 emissions. We find that the EU ETS kept some degree of effectiveness but only during phase I (2005�07). During phase II (2008�12), its impact has been largely impeded by the deep economic recession in 2008�2009 which became the leading cause of the emissions reduction. We disentangle the analysis not only by periods but also for each type of power plants. We conclude that the EU Commission�s flagship climate policy could and should be enhanced by better coordination of overlapping climate policies.





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