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GHG Mitigation Potential, Costs and Benefits in Global Forests: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Approach

Abstract:
This paper reports on the global potential for carbon sequestration in forest plantations, and the reduction of carbon emissions from deforestation, in response to six carbon price scenarios from 2000 to 2100. These carbon price scenarios cover a range typically seen in global integrated assessment models. The world forest sector was disaggregated into ten regions, four largely temperate, developed regions: the European Union, Oceania, Russia, and the United States; and six developing, mostly tropical, regions: Africa, Central America, China, India, Rest of Asia, and South America. Three mitigation optionsÑlong-and short-rotation forestry, and the reduction of deforestationÑwere analyzed using a global dynamic partial equilibrium model (GCOMAP). Key findings of this work are that cumulative carbon gain ranges from 50.9 to 113.2 Gt C by 2100, higher carbon prices early lead to earlier carbon gain and vice versa, and avoided deforestation accounts for 51 to 78% of modeled carbon gains by 2100. The estimated present value of cumulative welfare change in the sector ranges from a decline of $158 billion to a gain of $81 billion by 2100. The decline is associated with a decrease in deforestation.

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Energy Specializations: Energy Modeling – Other; Energy and the Environment – Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases; Energy and the Environment – Policy and Regulation

JEL Codes: Q24: Renewable Resources and Conservation: Land, Q21: Renewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply; Prices, Q54: Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming, Q16: Agricultural R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

Keywords: GHG mitigation in forest plantations, Carbon prices, GCOMAP model, Tree planting

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-7

Published in Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy, Special Issue #3 of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.

 

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