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Residential Electricity Demand Modeling in the Australian Capital Territory: Preliminary Results

W. A. Donnelly

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No2-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
The demand for electricity has recently become a topic of major interest in Australia, where very little empirical analysis has been done (see Hawkins, 1975; Saddler et al., 1980; Department of National Development and Energy, 1981; Brian and Schuyers, 1981; and Donnelly and Saddler, 1982). Two of the policy issues being raised concern the appropriate pricing strategies that should be adopted by supplying authorities and the need for additional generating capacity. An understanding of the relative importance of the factors influencing electricity demand is required to aid public policy making, particularly since substantial investment is now being considered.



The Resource Rent Tax in Australia

Paul G. Bradley

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-NoSI-4
No Abstract



The Value of Australia's Natural Gas Resource - A Linear Programing Analysis

K. J. Stocks and A. R. de L. Musgrove

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No2-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Natural gas prices in Australia have evolved from long-term contracts negotiated when energy prices were considerably lower than they are today.' Following the increases in the world price of oil and the Australian government's policy to price new indigenous oil supplies at the world parity price, it seemed that natural gas was being undervalued. A vigorous debate ensued. One side maintained that gas should also be priced on the domestic market to reflect the value of LNG in the world market. A similar view asserted that gas ought to be priced at the energy-equivalent value of crude oil.



Integrating Direct Metering and Conditional Demand Analysis for Estimating End-Use Loads

Robert Bartels and Denzil G. Fiebig

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No4-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Conditional demand analysis (CDA) is a statistical method for allocating the total household electricity load during a period, into its constituent components, each associated with a particular electricity-using appliance or end-use. This is an indirect approach to the estimation of end-use demand and, quite naturally, it often generates imprecise estimates. One of the possible methods for improving these estimates involves the incorporation of data obtained by directly metering specific appliances. It is argued that an extremely natural approach to the use of this extra information follows directly from a reformulation of the standard CDA model into a random coefficient framework Some new results on the possible efficiency gains from such an approach are developed. Illustrations based on an empirical study of New South Wales (NSW) households are also provided.



The Cost of Australian Carbon Dioxide Abatement

Robert E. Marks, Peter L. Swan, Peter McLennan, Richard Schodde, Peter B. Dixon and David T. Johnson

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No2-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper examines efficient means of abating the greenhouse effect in Australia by reducing the emissions of CO2. It examines the generation of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Australia, and analyses means to cut emissions from electricity generation and road transport. Finally, it calculates the cost, in terms of growth forgone, of measures to attain the Toronto targets for Australian electricity generation and road transport, using the ORANI multisectoral model.



A Micro-Econometric Analysis of the Industrial Demand for Energy in NSW

Alan D. Woodland

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No2-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper analyzes an extensive data set consisting of observations on all manufacturing establishments in New South Wales, Australia over an eight-year period. The focus is on the determinants of the demands by manufacturing establishments for different fuels (namely coal, oil, gas and electricity) and, in particular, upon the responsiveness of the demands to changes in the prices of the various fuels, the wage rate, and the rental rate on capital. Particular attention is paid to the facts that (a) establishments have different patterns of fuel consumption and (b) gas and electricity have block-pricing structures. Estimates of own-price elasticities of demand for electricity, gas and oil are higher than appear in the literature.



Gas or Electricity, which is Cheaper? An Econometric Approach with Application to Australian Expenditure Data

Robert Bartels, Denzil G. Fiebig and Michael H. Plumb

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No4-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
The question of whether it is cheaper for households to use electricity or gas for space heating, water heating and cooking, generates much debate in Australia. Generally, gas appliances are technically less efficient than electrical appliances, but on a per MJ basis, gas is cheaper than electricity. The trade-off between these two factors has typically been assessed using an engineering approach which ignores the fact that gas and electric appliances might be used in different ways in the home and that there may be price effects. This paper utilises an alternative perspective based on econometric methods. We analyse the actual energy expenditures of a large sample of Australian households and estimate the expenditure on the main end-uses for households using different fuel types. We find that households using electricity for main heating spend considerably less than households using gas. For cooking, households using gas generally spend less, while for water heating the results are mixed. We discuss several possible interpretations of these results in terms of consumer preferences and running costs.



Distributed Electricity Generation in Competitive Energy Markets: A Case Study in Australia

Deepak Sharma and Robert Bartels

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume 18
Number: Distributed Resources: Toward a New Paradigm of the Electricity Business
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-NoSI-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
The electricity industry in Australia has recently undergone significant restructuring. Generation, transmission and distribution have been unbundled and placed under private or public corporate ownership. Industry restructuring, together with concerns about the environment, have resulted in a noticeable increase in distributed electricity generation, especially small-scale generation. This development has important ramifications for the electricity industry and the wider economy. This paper provides an empirical analysis of the recent growth in distributed electricity generation in Australia, and analyzes the factors driving this resurgence of interest. The paper also attempts to identify the underlying factors contributing to the development of distributed generation. Past and current distributed generation projects are classified according to which technical or institutional factor was dominant in the realization of each project. This enables us to identify changes over time in the rationale for distributed generation. A comparative analysis of the developments in the different Australian states provides additional insights into the roles played by factors such as geography, the availability of low-cost industrial by-products for fuel, and the introduction of competitive markets.



Residential End-Use Electricity Demand: Results from a Designed Experiment

Robert Bartels and Denzil G. Fiebig

Year: 2000
Volume: Volume21
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No2-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
Being able to disaggregate total energy demand into components attributable to specific end uses provides useful information and represents a primary input into any attempt to simulate the impact of policies aimed at encouraging households to use less energy or shift load. Conceptually the estimation problem can be solved by directly metering individual appliances. Not surprisingly, this has not been widely practised and by far the most common estimation procedure has been the indirect statistical approach known as conditional demand analysis. More recently, with access to limited direct metering, both approaches have been used in combination. This paper reports on a substantial modelling exercise that represents a unique example of combining data of this type. The distinctive aspects are the extent and richness of the metering data and the fact that optimal design techniques were used to decide on the pattern of metering. As such, the empirical results are able to provide a very detailed and accurate picture of how total residential load is disaggregated by end uses. Significantly, the consumption of high penetration end uses such as lighting, which cannot be estimated by conventional conditional demand analysis, has been successfully estimated. Also, by matching our estimates of end-use load curves with some recent prices paid by distributors to purchase electricity from an electricity market pool, we have been able to determine the costs to distributors associated with servicing individual end uses.



Systematic Features of High-Frequency Volatility in Australian Electricity Markets: Intraday Patterns, Information Arrival and Calendar Effects

Helen Higgs and Andrew C. Worthington

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No4-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper investigates the intraday price volatility process in four Australian wholesale electricity markets; namely New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. The data set consists of half-hourly electricity prices and demand volumes over the period January 1, 2002 to June 1, 2003. A range of processes including GARCH, RiskMetrics, normal Asymmetric Power ARCH or APARCH, Student APARCH and skewed Student APARCH are used to model the time-varying variance in prices and the inclusion of news arrival as proxied by the contemporaneous volume of demand, time-of-day, day-of-week and month-of-year effects as exogenous explanatory variables. The skewed Student APARCH model, which takes account of right skewed and fat tailed characteristics, produces the best results in all four markets. The results indicate significant innovation (ARCH effects) and volatility (GARCH effects) spillovers in the conditional standard deviation equation, even with market and calendar effects included. Intraday prices also exhibit significant asymmetric responses of volatility to the flow of information.




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