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Cost-Effective Control Strategies for Energy-Related Transboundary Air Pollution in Western Europe

Heinz Welsch

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-5
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Abstract:
In this paper a simulation model of the West European power plant industry, combined with transboundary source-receptor relationships, is used to determine cost-effective reduction rates for SO2 emissions in any one country so that certain, exogenously given, deposition reduction targets are attained. The overall costs implied by the proposed strategies, and their distribution among countries, are examined and compared to those associated with the traditional emission-standard approach. It is found that the cooperative and flexible strategies considered allow for overall cost savings of up to 60 percent, given the same degree of deposition reduction.

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The Costs of Stabilizing Global CO2 Emissions: A Probabilistic Analysis Based on Expert Judgments

Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No1-3
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Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the economic costs of stabilizing global CO2 emissions at 1990 levels. Previous analyses of the costs of emissions abatement have tended to be deterministic. That is, no attempt was made to assign probabilities to various scenarios. Policy-makers need information both on the range of possible outcomes and on their relative likelihood. We use a probability poll to characterize the uncertainty surrounding critical parameters and to construct probability distributions over the outcomes of interest. The analysis suggests a wide range for abatement costs. In order to stabilize global emissions, the annual price tag lies between a 2 and 6.8 percent of gross world product. This distribution is highly skewed. The expected costs are approximately 1.5 percent.

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CO2 Emission Reduction Costs in the Residential Sector: Behavioral Parameters in a Bottom-Up Simulation Model

Mark Jaccard, Alison Bailie and John Nyboer

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No4-5
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Abstract:
Cost estimates for reducing energy-related CO2 emissions vary with modeling assumptions and methods. Much debate has centered on the tendency for top-down models to suggest high costs and for bottom-up models to suggest low costs. This study incorporates behavioral parameters, derived from end-use equipment acquisition surveys, in a bottom-up simulation model ofthe residential sector in order to probe the basis for differing cost estimates and to test various policy suggestions. Simulating the effect of carbon taxes on a business as usual forecast, the results suggest that a CO2 tax will lead to significant net costs of adjustment if the factors leading to higher private discount rates reflect in part real costs and risks. The results also suggest that it may be in society's interest to pursue fuel switching policies with equal or greater vigour than energy efficiency improvements for the goal of reducing CO2emissions in the residential sector. As further research helps to distinguish the significance of these perceived costs and risks, and to refine projections of technology costs, the inputs to the model can be adjusted in order to refine the estimates for policy makers of CO2 reduction costs and of appropriate strategies for achieving reduction goals.

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At What Cost do We Reduce Pollution? Shadow Prices of SO2 Emissions

John R. Swinton

Year: 1998
Volume: Volume19
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-3
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Abstract:
The U. S. EPA's infant market for SO2 emissions has the potential for improving the cost effectiveness of reducing acid rain pollutants. If the market works as planned, over time one should see the cost of reducing additional amounts of sulfur dioxide converge across plants. The results of the study described here demonstrate that before the market opened marginal abatement costs varied wildly across plants. This work provides estimates of the shadow price of SO2 abatement using the output distance function approach for Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin coal-burning electric plants. The results demonstrate that the coal-burning electric plants with the highest emissions rates are also the plants with the lowest marginal abatement costs, a fact that may explain lower-than-expected prices in the new market for allowances. The data include information about plants with installed scrubber capital allowing for an investigation of the effect of scrubber capital on marginal abatement costs.

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The Kyoto Protocol: A Cost-Effective Strategy for Meeting Environmental Objectives?

Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-2
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Abstract:
This paper has three purposes: 1) to identify the near-term costs to the United States of ratifying the Kyoto Protocol; 2) to assess the significance of the Protocol's "flexibility provisions"; and, 3) to evaluate the Kyoto targets in the context of the long-term goal of the Framework Convention. We find that the short-term U.S. abatement costs of implementing this Protocol are likely to be substantial. These costs can be reduced through international trade in emission rights. The magnitude of the costs will be determined by the number of countries participating in the trading market, the shape of each country's marginal abatement cost curve, and the extent to which buyers can satisfy their obligation through the purchase of emission rights. Finally and perhaps most important: unless the ultimate concentration target is well below 550 ppmv, the Protocol seems to be inconsistent with a long-term strategy for stabilizing global concentrations.

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Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates?

Carolyn Fischer and Richard D. Morgenstern

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No2-5
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Abstract:
Estimates of marginal abatement costs for reducing carbon emissions derived from major economic-energy models vary widely. Controlling for policy regimes we use meta-analysis to examine the importance of structural modeling choices in explaining differences in estimates. The analysis indicates that particular assumptions about perfectly foresighted consumers and Armington trade elasticities generate lower estimates of marginal abatement costs. Other choices are associated with higher cost estimates, including perfectly mobile capital, inclusion of a backstop technology, and greater disaggregation among regions and sectors. Some features, such as greater technological detail, seem less significant. Understanding the importance of key modeling assumptions, as well as the way the models are used to estimate abatement costs, can help guide the development of consistent modeling practices for policy evaluation.

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Impacts of Technology Uncertainty on Energy Use, Emission and Abatement Cost in USA: Simulation results from Environment Canada's Integrated Assessment Model

Yunfa Zhu and Madanmohan Ghosh

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.SI1.12
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Abstract:
To what extent could various technological advancements in the coming decades potentially help greenhouse gas mitigation in the U.S.? What could the potential contribution of end-use technology and other key clean electric energy technologies such as CCS, Nuclear power, wind & solar, and biomass be? This paper presents simulation results from an Integrated Assessment Model that suggest that, in the absence of policy measures, even under the most optimistic state of technology development and deployment scenarios, the U.S. energy system would still be dominated by fossil fuels and GHG emissions would increase significantly between 2010 and 2050. A pessimistic scenario in end-use technology would result in increased electric and non-electric energy use and GHG emissions compared to the advanced technology scenario, while a pessimistic scenario in any one of the four clean technologies examined would result in reduced electric and non-electric energy use and a small increase in GHG emissions. However, if all technologies are in pessimistic status, GHG emissions would increase significantly as more fossil fuels would be used in the energy system. Technology alone cannot achieve the abatement levels required. A market-based policy targeting the reduction of U.S. GHG emissions to 50% below 2005 levels by 2050 would result in dramatic decrease in coal-fired generation. With abatement policies in place, favorable technology scenarios reduce abatement costs and facilitate the energy system transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. Keywords: Energy use, Clean technology, GHG abatement, Abatement cost

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The Implicit Carbon Price of Renewable Energy Incentives in Germany

Claudio Marcantonini, A. Denny Ellerman

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.4.cmar
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Abstract:
This research analyzes the German experience in promoting Renewable Energy (RE) as an instrument to reduce GHG emissions. It identifies the cost of reducing CO2 emissions in the power sector through the promotion of wind and solar energy for the years 2006-2010. A RE carbon surcharge and an implicit carbon price due to the RE incentives are calculated. The RE carbon surcharge is the ratio of the net cost of the RE over the CO2 emission reductions resulting from actual RE injections into the electric power system. The implicit carbon price is the sum of the RE carbon surcharge and the EUA price. Results show that for the period analyzed both the RE carbon surcharge and the implicit carbon price of wind are on the order of tens of euro per tonne of CO2, while for solar are on the order of hundreds of euro per tonne of CO2.

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Diffusion of Climate Technologies in the Presence of Commitment Problems

Taran Faehn and Elisabeth T. Isaksen

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.2.tfae
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Abstract:
Publicly announced greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets and emissions pricing strategies by individual governments may suffer from inherent commitment problems. When emission prices are perceived as short-lived, socially cost-effective upfront investment in climate technologies may be hampered. This paper compares the social abatement cost of a uniform GHG pricing system with two policy options for overcoming such regulatory uncertainty: One combines the emissions pricing with a state guarantee scheme whereby the regulatory risk is borne by the government and one combines the system with subsidies for upfront climate technology investments. A technology-rich computable general equilibrium model is applied that accounts for abatement both within and beyond existing technologies. Our findings suggest a tripling of abatement costs if domestic climate policies fail to stimulate investment in new technological solutions. Since the cost of funding investment subsidies is found to be small, the subsidy scheme performs almost as well as the guarantee scheme.

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The Marginal Abatement Cost of Carbon Emissions in China

Chunbo Ma and Atakelty Hailu

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: China Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI1.cma
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Abstract:
There is an emerging literature estimating the marginal cost of carbon mitigation in China using distance function approaches; however, empirical estimates vary widely in magnitude and variation, which undermines support for policies to curb carbon emission. Applying three commonly used distance functions to China's provincial data from 2001 to 2010, we show that the variability can be partially explained by the difference in the input/output coverage and whether the estimated marginal abatement cost (MAC) is conditional on the abatement of other correlated pollutants. We also argue that the substantial heterogeneity in abatement cost estimates could be related to an economic interpretation that radial measures reflect the short-run MACs while non-radial measures reflect the long-run MACs. Our mean short-run MAC for carbon is 20 US$ per tonne, an amount that is very close to the carbon prices observed in China's recently launched pilot markets.

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