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Domestic Energy: A Forgotten Factor in Simple Energy-Economy Models

Stephen C. Peck and John L. Solow

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No3-3
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Abstract:
This paper focuses on the impacts of changes in world energy prices on an energy-importing economy such as the United States. To this end, we use a simple energy-economy model developed by Sweeney [7] and having affinities to the earlier work of Hogan and Manne [5]. This model takes explicit account of the fact that the U.S. energy sector is linked to the rest of the world and that the United States is a net importer of energy. Comparative static analysis of this model enables us to pinpoint the most important parameters in the determination of relative price effects on the domestic economy. We show that the presence of energy consumption taxes and energy production subsidies does not affect the impacts of changes in world energy prices on national output.





Electricity Growth in the Future

Stephen C. Peck and John P. Weyant

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-5
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Abstract:
Electricity demand in the United States declined in 1974 after over twenty years of sustained growth. By 1976, the growth rate was back up to 5 percent, but since then it has eroded steadily, with demand in 1982 slightly less than in 1981. This paper provides a simple way to understand these trends in electricity demand and to project futuredevelopments.



The NERC Fan in Retrospect and Lessons for the Future

Charles R. Nelson, Stephen C. Peck, Robert G. Uhler

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No2-7
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Abstract:
Projections of the future demand for electricitypublished annually since 1974 by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) have proved in retrospect to have been too high and the projected growth rate has been revised downward each year. Should forecasters have been able to do a better job of predicting the slowdown in electricity growth which has occurred since the early 1970s? The authors have attempted to provide partial answers to this question by comparing the published NERC projections with benchmark forecasts provided by simple models representing well-established techniques. The authors also discuss how modelers and planners can cope with uncertainty by using the techniques of decision analysis.



CO2 Emissions Control Agreements: Incentives for Regional Participation

Stephen C. Peck and Thomas J. Teisberg

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-14
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Abstract:
This paper explores the incentives for participation in international CO2 control agreements using tradable emission permits. We employ a welfare analysis in a two-region model to explore these incentives. The two regions are Annex-I (A-I) and Non-Annex I (Non-A-I). A key insight underlying the analysis is that emission permit allocations must not depart too far from optimal emissions paths, to avoid creating future incentives to drop out of the agreement. We find a range of permit allocations that improves the welfare of both the Annex-I and the Non-Annex I, and compare them with allocations based on regional population or GDP. In addition, we examine the implications of the Kyoto agreement in the context of this welfare analysis. We find that the Kyoto agreement transfers wealth from A-I to the Non-A-I, while failing to realize tile efficiency gains to be hoped for from an agreement to control CO2 emissions.





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