Econonomics of Energy and Environmental Policy

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The Impact of Renewable Energy Forecasts on Intraday Electricity Prices

Abstract:
In this paper we study the impact of errors in wind and solar power forecasts on intraday electricity prices. We develop a novel econometric model which is based on day-ahead wholesale auction curves data and errors in wind and solar power forecasts. The model shifts day-ahead supply curves to calculate intraday prices. We apply our model to the German EPEX SPOT data. Our model outperforms both linear and non-linear benchmarks. Our study allows us to conclude that errors in renewable energy forecasts exert a non-linear impact on intraday prices. We demonstrate that additional wind and solar power capacities induce non-linear changes in the intraday price volatility. Finally, we comment on economical and policy implications of our findings.
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Keywords: Energy economics, Energy forecasting, Energy Policy, Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Renewable Resources

DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.10.1.skul


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Published in Volume 10, Number 1 of The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.


 

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