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The Kyoto Protocol: An Economic Analysis Using GTEM

Vivek Tulpule, Stephen Brown, Jaekyu Lim, Cain Polidano, Horn Pant and Brian S. Fisher

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-11
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Abstract:
In this paper ABARE's Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) is used to analyse the potential of international emissions trading as a mechanism for helping to achieve the abatement commitments agreed to in the Kyoto Protocol. The prospect of two emission trading blocs, one consisting of the European Union and eastern Europe and the other consisting of many of the remaining Annex I regions, is also considered. The analysis shows that the carbon penalty varies significantly across regions when no emissions trading is allowed. In aggregate, the cost of abatement to Annex I regions falls with emissions trading.Under the assumption of the two trading blocs, the carbon penalty in the European bloc is higher than with full Annex I trading. The paper also considers the impact on developing countries and the role of carbon leakage in determining the economic impacts on Annex I regions.



CO2 Emissions Control Agreements: Incentives for Regional Participation

Stephen C. Peck and Thomas J. Teisberg

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-14
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Abstract:
This paper explores the incentives for participation in international CO2 control agreements using tradable emission permits. We employ a welfare analysis in a two-region model to explore these incentives. The two regions are Annex-I (A-I) and Non-Annex I (Non-A-I). A key insight underlying the analysis is that emission permit allocations must not depart too far from optimal emissions paths, to avoid creating future incentives to drop out of the agreement. We find a range of permit allocations that improves the welfare of both the Annex-I and the Non-Annex I, and compare them with allocations based on regional population or GDP. In addition, we examine the implications of the Kyoto agreement in the context of this welfare analysis. We find that the Kyoto agreement transfers wealth from A-I to the Non-A-I, while failing to realize tile efficiency gains to be hoped for from an agreement to control CO2 emissions.



Decarbonizing the Global Economy with Induced Technological Change: Scenarios to 2100 using E3MG

Terry Barker, Haoran Pan, Jonathan Kohler, Rachel Warren, and Sarah Winne

Year: 2006
Volume: Endogenous Technological Change
Number: Special Issue #1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI1-12
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Abstract:
This paper reports how endogenous economic growth and technological change have been introduced into a global econometric model. It explains how further technological change might be induced by mitigation policies so as to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize atmospheric concentrations. These are the first results of a structural econometric approach to modeling the global economy using the model E3MG (energy-environment-economy model of the globe), which in turn constitutes one component in the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) of the UK Tyndall Centre. The model is simplified to provide a post-Keynesian view of the long-run, with an indicator of technological progress affecting each region�s exports and energy use. When technological progress is endogenous in this way, long-run growth in global GDP is partly explained by the model. Average permit prices and tax rates about $430/tC (1995) prices after 2050 are sufficient to stabilize atmospheric concentrations at 450ppm CO2 after 2100. They also lead to higher economic growth.



Interregional Sharing of Energy Conservation Targets in China: Efficiency and Equity

Dan Wei and Adam Rose

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No4-3
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Abstract:
Energy conservation is a long-term strategic policy in China to support its economic and social development. This strategy is important for saving resources, protecting the environment, and ensuring a secure supply of energy. However, energy conservation often involves large amounts of investment and may also have dampening impacts on some local and regional economies. Moreover, energy conservation has many features of a public good. Therefore, government policy will have to play a strong role to foster local efforts and interregional cooperation on this issue. This paper analyzes a promising policy instrument � an interregional energy conservation-quota trading system. An operational model is developed to simulate the workings of this policy instrument for a variety of quota allocations among regions. The results indicate that a tradable quota system can help China achieve its conservation target in a cost-effective way and in accordance with its regional development strategy.





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