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Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe — A Simulation Analysis

Christian von Hirschhausen, Berit Meinhart, and Ferdinand Pavel

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No2-3
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Abstract:
This paper examines the options of transporting Russian gas to Western Europe, an issue that has thus far been dominated by a single transit country, Ukraine, which has recently witnessed substantial political turmoil. The completion of a new transit corridor through Belarus in 1999, the so-called Yamal-Europe pipeline, has modified the situation profoundly. The paper develops a model of different strategies of Russia and Ukraine, and derives the analytical solution for Russian gas exports to Western Europe, prices, and the expected profits for the players; we also calibrate numerical results and perform simulations. It turns out that Ukraine suffers a loss from the market entry of Belarus, Russia�s profits significantly increase, and Russia has an incentive to expand its gas transit capacity through Belarus further. The gas price for West European importers falls in the case of cooperative behavior of Russia and Ukraine, and/or new pipeline construction through Belarus. However, both developments would also imply a higher European import dependence on Russian gas.



Global Natural Gas Issues and Challenges: A Commentary

Michelle Michot Foss

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No2-6
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Abstract:
Interest in the potential for natural gas to emulate oil as a �global� commodity has grown. While international trade in natural gas in liquefied form has occurred for roughly 40 years, natural gas transactions largely take place in local and regional geographies. Growing demand among large consuming nations relative to global distribution of natural gas resources makes for a compelling story with respect to international, transoceanic trade outlooks. However, natural gas and the natural gas �value chain� are imbued with unique characteristics that require careful consideration by developers, researchers, regulators and policy makers. This article provides an overview and suggests key questions and issues for further research.





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