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I. Conceptual Framework - The Gordian Knot of Natural Gas Prices

Henry D. Jacoby and Arthur W. Wright

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No4-1
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Abstract:
Federal policy toward natural gas prices is once again the subject of national debate. Thought to be settled once and for all by the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 (NGPA), it reemerged as an issue in 1981. The proximate causes of the renewed controversy included candidate Ronald Reagan's campaign promise to seek wellhead price decontrol, and the Reagan administration's attempts (until March 1982) to find a workable decontrol proposal. But the wellsprings of the problem go deeper than this, to the history of gas price regulation, to changes in energy markets since 1978, and to serious defects in the NGPA itself.



The Supply, Demand, and Average Price of Natural Gas under Free-Market Conditions

Jack W. Wilkinson

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No1-6
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Abstract:
Editor's note: The following paper is of particular interest because the model it summarizes is based an a market equilibration process that generates gas prices differently than the models discussed in our special issue on gas deregulation (October 1982). It should be pointed out that while this paper was reviewed by a panel of expert readers, it has not undergone the anonymous refereeing process that is standard for scholarly papers published in The Energy Journal.



The Effects of Natural Gas Decontrol on Fertilizer Demand, Production Costs, and Income in Agriculture

Michael LeBlanc

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-10
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Abstract:
Under the provisions of the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 (NGPA), about 50 percent of natural gas production will be decontrolled in 1985. Whether natural gas is decontrolled under the provisions of NGPA or new decontrol legislation is enacted, real natural gas prices are likely to increase during the next few years. Rising natural gas prices will directly affect agriculture by increasing crop drying and irrigation costs. However, the largest effects will occur indirectly through increases in nitrogenous fertilizer prices; natural gas represents 60 to 70 percent of fertilizer production costs (Lutton and Andrilenas 1983). Because farm production expenses have increased nearly $100 billion from 1970 through 1981 (U.S. Department of Agriculture 1982b) and real farm income has decreased 70 percent during the same period, the decontrol of natural gas is viewed with concern by the agricultural community.



The Value of Commodity Purchase Contracts With Limited Price Risk

Elizabeth Olmsted Teisberg and Thomas J. Teisberg

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No3-8
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Abstract:
This paper describes and demonstrates the equilibrium market valuation of commodity purchase contracts with price ceilings or price floors or both. These contracts, which we call "limited price risk" contracts, are significantly easier for buyers and sellers to agree upon than fixed price contracts when price uncertainty is high and buyers and sellers have inconsistent price expectations. Analysis of an actual natural gas contract as well as the existence of many brokers promoting limited price risk gas contracts, suggest that these contracts may be priced inefficiently in practice. Our example application should help managers to make use of modem financial techniques in assessing the value of these types of contracts.



World Demand for Natural Gas: History and Prospects

Marian Radetzki

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-12
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Abstract:
This paper briefly surveys the history of natural gas use and describes the main features of current gas consumption. The share of gas in total energy consumption, and the sectoral distribution of its use in major consuming regions are discussed. The main changes in the pattern of gas consumption since 1980 are reviewed and explained. I analyze the likely implications of (a) the emergence of the combined cycle gas power generation; (b) the rising environmental premium of gas; and (c) the transformation of the West European gas market structure. The paper concludes that natural gas will substantially increase its share of global energy consumption in the next 15-20 years.



Gas Supplies for the World Market

James T. Jensen

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-13
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Abstract:
The ability of natural gas to compete with other energy sources is increasingly favored by environmental and technological developments. Front a worldwide perspective, the gas reserves needed to satisfy this growing market are large (relative to gas demand) and are growing more rapidly. However, gets, unlike oil, is expensive to transport and many of the world's present gas reserves are in deposits that are too small or too remote to be of commercial value at present price levels. As a result, much of the supply will prove difficult to deliver to the markets that most need it, and the price consequences of market growth will vary from market to market.



An Econometric Analysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures

W. David Walls

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No1-5
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Abstract:
This research tests a form of the efficient markets hypothesis in the, market for natural gas futures. Unlike other studies of futures markets, the test for market efficiency is conducted at numerous locations which comprise the, natural gas spot market in addition to the delivery location specified in the futures contract. Natural gas spot and futures prices are found to be nonstationary and accordingly are modeled using recently developed maximum likelihood cointegration techniques. The futures market price is found to be cointegrated with nearly all of the spot market prices across the national network of gas pipelines. The hypothesis of market efficiency can be rejected in 3 of the 13 spot markets examined.



Regional Limitations on the Hedging Effectiveness of Natural Gas Futures

Emile J. Brinkmann and Ramon Rabinovitch

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No3-5
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Abstract:
This paper examines the extent to which limitations in the transportation system for the natural gas market in the United States narrows the effectiveness of the NYMEX natural gas future contract as a hedging instrument and why a second contract with a different delivery point was approved during 1995. We find that the NYMEX contract is an effective hedging instrument for gas sold into pipelines for consumption in southern, eastern and midwestern states, but does, not provide an effective hedge for gas sold for Rocky Mountain and West Coast states.



The Development of a UK Natural Gas Spot Market

Joe Roeber

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No2-1
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Abstract:
This paper examines parallels between the evolution of spot markets jor oil during the 1980s, particularly Brent, and what is now happening in the UK gas industry. The structure of supply, formerly within the control of British Gas, is breaking up under antitrust and regulatory pressures, and the short-term balancing needs of the system are being externalised. This is giving rise to a spot market. This paper identifies four stages in the development of a spot market, of which the UK market is presently in the first and second stages (physical balancing and the development of price transparency). Feedback effects on prices are already apparent, and the fourth stage, the development of risk management tools, is being discussed. This scenario was drawn up three years ago, based upon the experience of oil before the existence of a gas spot market was acknowledged. It has so far not missed a step. According to this analysis, the question over the extension of this logic to the gas markets in Continental Europe is not whether, but when?



Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets

Marlin King and Milan Cuc

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No2-2
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Abstract:
In this paper we apply time-varying parameter (Kalman Filter) analysis to measure the degree of price convergence in North American natural gas spot markets. This statistical approach allows for an assessment of the strength of price convergence across various gas-producing basins. It is also a technique better suited than cointegration analysis because of the explicit presence of time varying parameters. Our results indicate that price convergence in natural gas spot markets has increased significantly since the price deregulation of the mid1980s. However, results to date indicate that there is still some way to go before one can speak of a single North American market for natural gas.




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