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Nuclear Power: A Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?

Fabien A. Roques , William J. Nuttall, David M. Newbery, Richard de Neufville, Stephen Connors

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No4-1
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Abstract:
High fossil fuel prices have rekindled interest in nuclear power. This paper identifies specific characteristics making nuclear power unattractive to merchant generators in liberalized electricity markets, and argues that non-fossil fuel technologies have an overlooked option value given fuel and carbon price uncertainty. Stochastic optimization estimates the company option value of keeping open the choice between nuclear and gas technologies. The merchant option value decreases sharply as the correlation between electricity, gas, and carbon prices rises, casting doubt on whether merchant investors have adequate incentives to choose socially efficient diversification in liberalized electricity markets.



The Impact of a Carbon Tax on the CO2 Emissions Reduction of Wind

Chi Kong Chyong, Bowei Guo, and David Newbery

Year: 2020
Volume: Volume 41
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.1.cchy
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Abstract:
Energy policy aims to reduce emissions at least long-run cost while ensuring reliability. Its effecacy depends on the cost of emissions reduced. Britain introduced an additional carbon tax (the Carbon Price Support, CPS) for fuels used to generate electricity that by 2015 added £18/t CO2, dramatically reducing the coal share from 41% in 2013 to 6% in 2018. Policies have both short and long-run impacts. Both need to be estimated to measure carbon savings. The paper shows how to measure the Marginal Displacement Factor (MDF, tonnes CO2 /MWh) for wind. The short-run (SR) MDF is estimated econometrically while the long-run (LR) MDF is calculated from a unit commitment model of the GB system in 2015. We examine counter-factual fuel and carbon price scenarios. The CPS lowered the SR-MDF by 7% in 2015 but raised the LR-MDF (for a 25% increase in wind capacity) by 18%. We discuss reasons for the modest differences in the SR- and LR-MDFs.





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