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Energy Prices and the U.S.Economy in 1979-1981

Knut Anton Mork and Robert E. Hall

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No2-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
For the second time in the decade, the U.S. economy is absorbing a large sudden shock in the world price of oil. From late in 1978 to June 1979, OPEC raised the world price of oil by closeto $9 per barrel. Western industrial nations could face a repetition of the serious recession of 1974-75 on close to the same scale. The increase in the total cost of energy inputs induced by this oil price increase is about two-thirds of the increase in 1974. The potential disruption to the U.S. economy and others is a similar fraction of what occurred in the earlier episode.



Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975

Knut Anton Mork and Robert E. Hall

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No3-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
The rapid escalations of energy prices, in late 1973 and early 1974 and again in mid- and late-1979, have had major adverse impactson the U.S. economy. The energy price shock of 1973-1974 played a dominant role, by most accounts, in bringing about the deep recession and high inflation of the mid-1970s. In the most recent period, the full impact is yet to be seen, but it does not appear to be minor.In a previous paper published in this journal, (volume 1, number 2, April 1980), we presented the results of our efforts to quantify the economic impact on the U.S. economy of the July 1979 oil price increases.



Energy Price Increases and Macroeconomic Policy

Robert S. Pindyck

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
A rising world price of energy imposes a macroeconomic cost on the United States in two different ways. First, to the extent that energy is both an important input to production and a consumption good, with limited elasticities of substitution and demand, the economy's production and consumption possibilities are necessarily reduced as energy becomes more scarce. Thus, even if an expansionary monetary and fiscal policy were successful in pushing the economy close to its full capacity level, the resulting real national income would be lower than if energy prices had notAn earlier version of this paper was presented at the CEPR Conference on Energy Prices, Inflation and Economic Activity, Cambridge, November 9, 1979. Work leading to this paperwas supported by the Center for Energy Policy Research of the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory, and that support is gratefully acknowledged. In writing this paper, I benefited considerablyfrom conversations with and comments from Olivier Blanchard, Stanley Fischer, Benjamin Friedman, Robert Hall, Franco Modigliani, Robert Solow, and an anonymous referee.



Energy Prices, Capital Formation, and Potential GNP

David F. Burgess

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No2-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
A common theme of the rapidly developing literature on energy-economy interaction is that higher energy prices-initiated by external events such as OPEC-will permanently reduce the growth potential of net energy-importing economies even if full-employment conditions are maintained. According to this literature, in the absence of government measures to encourage saving and investment any initial adverse effect on the economy's real income at full employment (hereafter referred to as potential GNP) resulting from the need to pay a higher real price for imported energy will be compounded by secondary effects that reduce the rate of capital formation. This secondary or reverse feedback effect through capital may be the largest component of the overall impact on potential GNP.



Interpreting the International Energy Workshop Survey Results - Uncertainty and the Need for Consistent Modeling

Gary W. Yohe

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No4-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Manne and Schrattenholzer's (1984) summary report of the poll responses of the 1983 International Energy Workshop (IEW) published in this Journal certainly captures the flavor of the Laxenburg meetings. Opinion about the future trends in energy consumption, prices, gross domestic product, and so on, at world, regional, and national levels was widely divergent even for the near term. In fact, it was noted with some amusement (and some dismay) that it seemed impossible to agree about what had already happened in 1980. Manne and Schrattenholzer accurately advertise the spreads they report as just what they are- differences of opinion. Nevertheless, even the statistically trained reader may be tempted to interpret these spreads as reflections of the uncertainty with which we view the world's energy future. One point of this Note is to provide independent emphasis that this uncertainty interpretation is, unless we are extremely lucky, entirely inappropriate. The second purpose is to register several other concerns about the lack of economic consistency in much of the modeling with which respondents to the JEW prepared their reports. Inconsistency, it will be argued, can undermine not only the usefulness of surveys like the one conducted by the IEW, but also the ability of any appropriate procedure to investigate the subjective uncertainty that blurs our best vision into the future.



The Great Transition: Energy and Economic Change

Dale W. Jorgenson

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No3-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper examines the interactions between energy prices and economic growth since the first world oil crisis in 1973. Its title comes from a report by the Swedish National Energy Administration. The report, which details the transition of the world economy from low-priced to high-priced energy, is an excellent overview of the interrelationships between industrialized economies and international energy markets.



The Effects of Energy Prices Upon Appliance Efficiencies and Building Insulation

Michael A. Einhorn

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No3-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
Energy economists have long recognized the fact that changes in energy prices can affect the demand for energy in several ways (e.g., see Fisher and Kaysen, 1962; Taylor, 1975). In the short run, energy users can change their utilization of a fixed appliance stock or a fixed set of capital equipment. In the long run, a user may change the makeup of his appliance stock by purchasing appliances he has never owned in the past, allowing certain appliances to retire unreplaced, and replacing worn-out devices with new ones of different operating efficiencies or of different fuel-using types. Recent works by economists have focused upon these various aspects of energy usage. (Prominent studies of short-run effects include Lawrence, 1982; George, 1982; Parti and Parti, 1980; and McFadden, Puig, and Kirshner, 1977.



P.R.C.'s Price Reform and the Trend in Energy Prices

Li Zheng, Zhang Jian

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume_9
Number: Special Issue 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-NoSI1-3
No Abstract



Energy Pricing and Household Energy Consumption in India

Ramesh Bhatia

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume_9
Number: Special Issue 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-NoSI1-4
No Abstract



Energy and Capital: Further Exploration of E-K Interactions and Economic Performance

Catherine Morrison

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No1-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper explores some interactions between energy and capital that affect firms' productive performance through indirect effects of energy price changes. Different capital stocks (including high-tech capital) and different U.S. manufacturing industries (including high and low energy- and capital-intensive industries) are examined. This allows evaluation of cross-effects, expressed as the impact of changing capital composition on energy conservation (computer induced energy conservation) and energy price effects on capital returns (including composition, utilization and scale). The resulting effects on productivity growth are then considered, through the impact of energy price changes both on the demand and cost share of energy, and on the measured returns to different types of capital.




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