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World Oil Prices and Economic Growth In the 1980s

Henry D. Jacoby and James L. Paddock

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No2-4
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The world oil market is a forecaster's nightmare: seldom have so many knowledgeable observers been so wrong so often. Prior to 1973, few foresaw the magnitude of the price jump that was possible under disrupted conditions, or predicted the years of relative stability that followed. The Iranian revolution brought a similar surprise. On the other hand, in the fall of 1980 came the Iran-Iraq war; again a major price shock seemed at hand. Experts are still arguing about why it did not occur.

The Competitive Floor to World Oil Prices

M. A. Adelman

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No4-1
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Years ago, I suggested that there was no current or impending oil shortage. Growing consumption, static U.S. production, and other reasons offered then and now did not imply that prices would rise. That conclusion only made sense if the pressure on reserves was increasing, a situation that would be signaled by rising costs of maintaining and expanding output. There was and is no sign of this.

Future World Oil Prices and Production Levels: A Comment

Franz Wirl

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No3-7
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In a recent paper published in this journal, Marsballa and Nesbitt (1986) present an economist's point of view of OPEC pricing. In particular, they compute profit maximizing price strategies using a dynamic representation of the world oil market. The purpose of this paper is not to dispute the calculated numbers but to question the qualitative validity of the calculated optimal paths. The claim of this note is that it is very unlikely to generate smooth paths -- e.g. the price strategies shown in their paper -- the presented framework.

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