Search

Begin New Search
Proceed to Checkout

Search Results for All:
(Showing results 1 to 4 of 4)



A Time-Series Analysis of U.S. Petroleum Industry Inventory Behavior

Robert Krol and Shirley Svorny

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No4-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper examines inventory behavior in the U.S. petroleum industry. Inventories of crude oil and its three major products-gasoline, distillate and residual fuel oil-are studied. Earlier empirical studies of inventory behavior have been unable to provide evidence of the production smoothing role of inventories emphasized in the theoretical literature (see Blinder, 1984). We suggest that these results are due to a tradition of relying on a partial-adjustment model to explain inventory behavior. We feel that the partial-adjustment model ignores potentially significant relationships between lagged values of explanatory variables and inventories implied by dynamic analysis. This leads us to investigate the time-series properties of petroleum inventories using the vector autoregression(VAR) methodology developed by Sims (1980).



Oil Shocks and the Demand for Electricity

Edward C Kokkelenberg and Timothy D. Mount

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No2-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper uses a Structural Econometric Model - Time Series Analysis to forecast the demand for electricity in the United States. The main innovation is to incorporate price shocks for oil into the model. The results show that if forecasts had been made with this model in the mid-1970s, they would have predicted the drop in the growth of demand more promptly than did the electric utility industry forecasts. Using current data, forecasts of demand for the year 2000 from the model are higher than industry forecasts, suggesting a reversal of the situation that existed in the 1970s.



Modelling and Forecasting Oil Prices: The Role of Asymmetric Cycles

Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Adusei Jumah and Sohbet Karbuz

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No3-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
Using a simple unobserved components model, we show that explicitly modelling asymmetric cycles on crude oil prices improves the forecast ability of univariate time series models of the oil price.



Sectoral Electricity Demand and Direct Rebound Effects in New Zealand

Rabindra Nepal, Muhammad Indra al Irsyad, and Tooraj Jamasb

Year: 2021
Volume: Volume 42
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.4.rnep
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper is one of the limited studies to investigate rebound effects in sectoral electricity consumption and the specific case of New Zealand. New Zealand, like other OECD economies, has aimed for energy efficiency improvements and reduced electricity consumption from 9.2 MWh per capita in 2010 to 8.6 MWh per capita in 2015. However, following a significant decline since 2010, electricity consumption in the main New Zealand sectors is increasing. Energy conservation could play an important role in meeting the growing demand for electricity but rebound effects can affect the effectiveness of conservation policies. We decompose the sectoral electricity prices to capture the asymmetric demand response to electricity price changes and estimate electricity demand elasticity during 1980 and 2015 to estimate the sectoral rebound effects. We find partial rebound effects of 54% and 23% in the industrial and commercial sectors respectively while we find no rebound effect at the aggregate level. The rebound effect is insignificant in the residential sector. These findings lead to policy recommendations for sector specific energy conservation measures and policies.





Begin New Search
Proceed to Checkout

 

© 2024 International Association for Energy Economics | Privacy Policy | Return Policy