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Multimarket, Multitechnology, Multiattribute Technological Forecasting

Barry G. Silverman

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No2-7
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Abstract:
This model was developed to provide a simplified yet systematic approach to the estimation of complex market penetration problems. Specifically, the model permits the decision maker to determine simultaneously the market penetration of several technologicalinnovations, under conditions consisting of (1) multiple market applications for each technological innovation, and (2) numerous competing technologies in each market application. Availability of this type of model is critical in a field such as energy, where an "explosion" of technological ideas into the marketplace appears to be imminent.



Productivity Growth and Technical Change in the Generation of Electricity

Paul L. Joskow

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No1-2
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Abstract:
No student of the electric power industry and its regulation can help but be troubled by the industry's recent historical record on productivity and technical change. For many years the electric power industry was one of the leading sectors of the economy in terms of productivity growth and technological innovation. This is no longer true. By almost every measure, productivity growth and technical change have virtually ceased in the past decade (or even decreased, by some estimates).



Choice of Technology and Long-Run Technical Change in Energy-Intensive Industries

Finn R. Forsund and Lennart Hjalmarsson

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No3-3
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Abstract:
The difference between short-run and long-run flexibility in energy use is an important topic in energy demand modeling. Dynamic formulations are required to reveal this difference. The microeconomic foundation for the distinction between short- and long-run energy substitution possibilities is the embodiment of production techniques.



Technological Innovation and a Changing Energy Mix - A Parametric and Flexible Approach to Modeling Ontario Manufacturing

Dean C. Mountain, Bill P. Stipdonk and Cathy J. Warren

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-9
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Abstract:
For the purposes of explaining historical trends in relative fuel usage and energy efficiency, an encompassing framework must incorporate both the influence of changing fuel prices and technological change. Schurr (1982), Rosenberg (1983), Jorgenson (1984, 1986) and Berndt (1986) have provided recent documentation of the importance of these two factors in explaining productivity growth. Moreover, these studies indicate that a key to understanding such trends is analysis at the individual industrial sector level.In ignoring the influence of technological change on interfuel substitution, modern studies (e.g., Gopalakrishnan, 1987; Moghimzadeh and Kymm, 1986) have left unaltered the approach taken in the pioneering studies of Berndt and Wood (1975), Fuss (1977), Griffin and Gregory (1976) and Halvorsen (1977).



Comments on Manne and Richels: "CO2 Emission Limits: An Economic Analysis for the USA"

William W. Hogan

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-4
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Abstract:
This paper evaluates the Global 2100 model application on global warming by A. S. Manne and R G. Richels, which is presented in this edition of The Energy Journal The paper discusses Manne and Richels's general analytical framework, the Global 2100 model; and Manne and Richels's exploration of international interdependence, benefit calculations, and the uncertainty which must necessarily accrue to any discussion of global warming. The paper suggests that cost-benefit analyses, such as the one provided by Manne and Richels, are necessary for policy recommendations. Differences in regional impacts of global warming are noted. The paper concludes that Manne and Richels's study is very worthwhile and pleads for further studies.



Productivity Trends and the Cost of Reducing CO2 Emissions

William W. Hogan and Dale W. Jorgenson

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-5
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Abstract:
Adequate control of CO2 emissions may require a significant increase in energy price, which in turn wilt create long-term economic costs. This paper explores the effects of long-term productivity trends in the U.S. economy and relates them to the cost of reducing CO2 emissions. Technology change has been negatively correlated with energy prices and positively correlated with materials prices. Thus, if all prices remain constant expenditures on materials per unit of output will decline, and expenditures on energy per unity of output will increase. If energy prices increase, the rate of productivity growth will decrease. This trend will be very small, if measured on an annual basis, but eventually could be quite significant. A comparison with recent cost estimates of CO2 emission control suggests that this otherwise ignored productivity effect could be the largest component of a complete cost analysis.



Measuring the Energy Efficiency and Productivity Impacts of Embodied Technical Change

Ernst Berndt, Charles Kolstad and Jong-Kun Lee

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No1-2
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Abstract:
Using data from the manufacturing sectors in the United States, Canada and France, we distinguish the energy efficiency and productivity impacts of embodied and unembodied technological progress. We find that technological progress embodied in new equipment is responsible for a surprisingly small proportion of productivity growth. We conclude the paper by interpreting this finding.



Technological Advancement and the Recovery of Natural Gas: The Value of Information

Janie M. Chermak and Robert H. Patrick

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No1-7
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Abstract:
Accurate information on geology, petroleum engineering, and economics is essential for firms to make efficient decisions concerning if and, if so, how to produce natural gas wells. Improved information may not only help insure that wells are economic, but may also lead to reduced costs of production and an increased physically recoverable stock of the resource. This paper empirically applies the economic theory of exhaustible resources (extended to include necessary reservoir engineering) to evaluate the benefits obtainable from using an enhanced information technology developed by the Gas Research Institute. The wells analyzed indicate significant benefits are obtainable with appropriate use of the new technology. The magnitudes of these benefits vary across reservoir characteristics.



Incorporating Investment Uncertainty into Greenhouse Policy Models

John R. Birge and Charles H. Rosa

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No1-5
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Abstract:
Greenhouse gas policy decisions require comprehensive understanding of atmospheric, economic, and social impacts. Many studies have considered the effects of atmospheric uncertainty in global warming, but economic uncertainties, have received Less analysis. We consider a key component of economic uncertainty: the return on investments in new technologies. Using a mathematical! programming model, we show that ignoring uncertainty in technology investment policy may lead to decreases as great as 2 percent in overall expected economic activity in the U.S. with even higher losses in possible future scenarios. These results indicate that both federal and private technology investment policies should be based on models explicitly incorporating uncertainty.



Natural Gas in the U.S.: How Far Can Technology Stretch the Resource Base?

Cutler J. Cleveland and Robert K. Kaufmann

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No2-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
We review the theoretical underpinnings of the exponential model, the amount of gas discovered per unit effort, a quantity called yield-per-effort (YPE), and estimate an econometric model that represents the historical determinants of the YPE for nonassociated gas discoveries in the lower 48 states from 1943 to 1991, the entire period for which the requisite data are available. Results indicate the YPE declines as the exponential function of cumulative drilling when short run changes in drilling effort, real gas prices, and shifts between onshore and offshore are accounted for. We explicitly test and reject the hypothesis that technological change has arrested or reversed the long run decline in YPE. We also discuss some alternative models of YPE that misrepresent the interplay of depletion and technical innovation, as well as the process of innovation itself, and the statistical and methodological shortcomings of the empirical analyses used to support several alternative models of YPE.




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