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Balancing Energy Supply and Demand: A Fifty-Year Global Perspective

Paul S. Basile

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-1
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Abstract:
Over the next five decades, even with vigorous conservation measures in industrialized regions, increasing needs for liquid fuels throughout the world may exceed the capabilities of global energy supply systems. The "energy problem," viewed in a sufficiently long-term and global perspective, is not an energy problem, strictly speaking, but an oil problem, or more precisely, a liquid fuels problem.



Comment on "Balancing Energy Supply and Demand"

John Foster

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-3
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Abstract:
While a number of energy studies assume a national or regional perspective, just a few attempt a global approach, and these are typically concerned with the implications for industrialized nations. More-over, very few published studies look at the long-term global scene as far ahead as even the year 2000 (e.g., WAES and Exxon's World Energy Outlook), and only one to my knowledge extends its perspective to 2020 (Conservation Commission of the World Energy Conferences, 1977). So the long-awaited IIASA report, (as summarized here by Paul Basile), represents a landmark.



The Future of OPEC: Price Level and Cartel Stability

George Daly, James M. Griffin, and Henry B. Steele

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No1-4
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Abstract:
In the wake of events associated with the Iranian revolution, the world price of oil increased from $15 to $32 per barrel. The Energy Modeling Forum's recent review of 10 world oil models shows virtual unanimity in holding that this price increase will be permanent and, indeed, that the real price of oil will increase in the future. The purpose of this paper is to seriously question the assumptions underlying such long-run projections-and hence the projections themselves. We conclude that the 1978-79 price hikes may prove to be a watershed event that effects fundamental changes in the long-run supply and demand for oil.



The Supply, Demand, and Average Price of Natural Gas under Free-Market Conditions

Jack W. Wilkinson

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No1-6
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Abstract:
Editor's note: The following paper is of particular interest because the model it summarizes is based an a market equilibration process that generates gas prices differently than the models discussed in our special issue on gas deregulation (October 1982). It should be pointed out that while this paper was reviewed by a panel of expert readers, it has not undergone the anonymous refereeing process that is standard for scholarly papers published in The Energy Journal.



China’s Natural Gas Demand Projections and Supply Capacity Analysis in 2030

Qiang Ji, Ying Fan, Mike Troilo, Ronald D. Ripple, and Lianyong Feng

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 6
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.6.qji
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Abstract:
This paper builds an econometric model to analyze the income elasticity and price elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand and forecasts China's natural gas demand up to 2030. The findings indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among sectoral natural gas demand, sectoral income and various fuel prices. The results also indicate that most price elasticities are smaller relative to developed countries; the effect of fuel prices on natural gas demand is partly offset by the government regulation. In the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, China's natural gas demand will reach 340 bcm and 528 bcm and its foreign dependence will reach 27.9% and 43.2% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The forecast and discussion in this paper provide important insights into China's energy policy design and pricing mechanism reform, and into the potential impact of China's growing natural gas demand on global energy market dynamics.





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