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Prospects for a Tighter World Oil Market

Edward W. Erickson

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-1
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Abstract:
Once again, the world oil market has failed to behave according to expectation. This time, the predictions of sharp price drops did not materialize-nor did previous forecasts of continuing escalation. This ongoing divergence between expectations and reality is becoming standard-as is the remarkable resiliency in the position and behavior of Saudi Arabia.



Forecasting the Demand for Electricity in Saudi Arabia

Mohammed A. Al-Sahlawi

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No1-10
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Abstract:
Electric power in Saudi Arabia is an essential tool for modern economic development. Thus, forecasting electricity demand is vital for planning and investment purposes. In estimating future electricity demand, it is important to assure high responsibility that there will be no supply shortages. Nonparametric analysis techniques like bootstrap, the jackknife, and cross-validation are becoming increasingly popular in the estimation of probability density function of a variable or its function (see Efron (1979) and Efron and Gong (1983)).



The Target Revenue Model and the World Oil Market: Empirical Evidence from 1971 to 1994

A.F. Alhajji and David Huettner

Year: 2000
Volume: Volume21
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No2-6
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Abstract:
This study draws on other studies that concluded OPEC is not a cartel and Saudi Arabia acts as a dominant producer in the world oil market. The intention here is to see whether the Target Revenue (TR) model provides an explanation for the behavior of some OPEC members that do not coordinate production with Saudi Arabia. We investigate whether production cuts or increases by OPEC and non OPEC members are based on their investment or budgetary needs. By retesting the TR model, we show that investment and budgetary needs do not affect the production of oil in free-market economies (OPEC and non-OPEC), but they do affect production decisions of the more centrally-planned, isolated and oil dependent economies. Existing studies in the literature have conceptual and statistical limitations that justify retesting the model. This study is the first to investigate the TR model in a separate study and to compare the results of static and dynamic models. It is also the first to examine the relationship between the degree of economic freedom and the Target Revenue model and to note the TR model is stable when used for countries that are price takers.



The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers

Lutz Kilian

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: Number 6
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.6.lkil
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Abstract:
This article makes four contributions. First, it investigates the extent to which the U.S. fracking boom has caused Arab oil exports to decline since late 2008. Second, the article quantifies for the first time by how much the U.S. fracking boom has lowered the global price of oil. Using a novel econometric methodology, it is shown that in mid-2014, for example, the Brent price of crude oil was lower by $10 than it would have been in the absence of the fracking boom. Third, the article provides evidence that the decline in Saudi net foreign assets between mid2014 and August 2015 would have been reduced by 27% in the absence of the fracking boom. Finally, the article discusses the policy choices faced by Saudi Arabia and other Arab oil producers.



Oil Subsidies and Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia: A General Equilibrium Approach

Jorge Blazquez, Lester C Hunt, and Baltasar Manzano

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: KAPSARC Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.SI1.jbla
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Abstract:
In 2016, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced its Vision 2030 strategic plan incorporating major changes to the economic structure of the country, including an intention to deploy 9.5 GW of renewable energy in an effort to reduce the penetration of oil in the electricity generation system. This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact of such changes in the KSA, coupled with reductions in implicit energy subsidies. Based on a dynamic general equilibrium model, our analysis suggests that if the KSA government were to deploy a relatively small quantity of renewable technology, consistent with the country's Vision 2030 plans, there would be a positive impact on the KSA's long run GDP and on households' welfare. However, we demonstrate that if the integration costs of renewable technology were high, then households' welfare would be maximized at around 30-40% renewables penetration. In addition, we show that a policy favoring renewable energy would increase the dependence of the KSA on oil, given that a larger share of GDP would be linked to oil exports and so, potentially, to oil price shocks. Finally, it is shown that exporting significantly more oil onto the international market could have a negative impact on the international oil price and thus could offset the potential gains from the renewable energy policy.





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