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Coping with Supply Insecurity

M. A. Adelman

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No2-1
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Abstract:
Since the end of World War II, there have been six world oil supply disruptions, in 1951, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1979, and 1980-one year in six, and the frequency seems to be increasing. This danger will continue, for there are many sources of disruption. Although the probability of any one type in any one year is low, the chances of escaping them all for several years are also low.



Oil Stockpiling: Help Thy Neighbor

William W. Hogan

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No3-4
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Abstract:
Saudi benevolence apart, a large inventory of oil is the most effective emergency tool that oil-importing nations could fashion. Long ago, Joseph advised the Pharaoh to prepare for famine by storing during times of plenty. Today virtually every study of policy options for oil supply emergencies emphasizes the value of building and using a large stock of oil to cushion the effects of a sudden loss in supply. And among the array of official pronouncements and promises, oil stockpiling stands out as the most visible and substantial arena of government activity in energy policy, where new institutions and resources have been deployed in the halting beginnings of a coordinated international stockpiling program. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and similar efforts have achieved primacy in the analysis and implementation of oil emergency policy.



A Critical Analysis of the DOE Report

S. Fred Singer

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No2-2
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Abstract:
The DOE Report, Energy Security, responds to White House con-cern about the decline of domestic oil production and the rise of oil imports. The Report (1987) has three purposes: to present data; to make projections; and to analyze policy alternatives. It is intended to provide a basis for making rational policy choices, but it does not make specific recommendations.My analysis here is intended as a critique of the report so that policy decision making can be improved. My analysis deals mainly with the oil sector; the report itself is more comprehensive. I provide specific recommendations relating mainly to producer and consumer tax policy, import fees, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) although the report covers a wider range of topics, including federal leasing policy.



Are There Useful Lessons from the 1990-91Oil Price Shock?

John A. Tatom

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume14
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No4-9
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Abstract:
Following Iraqs invasion of Kuwait, oil prices temporarily doubled. This paper examines the hypothesis that the U.S. economy had changed following previous oil price shocks, so that the 1990 oil price rise (and its subsequent decline) had smaller effects than previously. It also examines a related hypothesis that such a transitory oil price hike would have little or no macroeconomic effect. It surveys and rejects arguments for a reduced impact of oil price shocks and for hysteresis. The article argues that recent experience was comparable in magnitude to earlier shocks and that there were comparable macroeconomic developments and changes in the composition of output. The paper concludes with a test of the effect of energy prices on the misery index and shows that recent changes in misery are consistent with previous experience.



Oil Imports and National Security: Is There Still a Connection?

John H. Lichtblau

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-18
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Abstract:
This article examines the impact of oil imports on U.S. national security. It reviews oil's links with national security, and questions the arguments for curbing imports. Debated since the 1950s, the links are based on oil's unique role in fueling the economy, its role for the sparring superpowers during the Cold War, and the political instability of the Middle East. The article challenges the "military externality' argument that U. S. imports require military protection. It compares U.S. import dependency with the much higher import dependency of most other industrial countries, none of which have expressed a national security concern similar to that of the U.S. It also points out that the source of imports is irrelevant, as the petroleum market functions globally with respect to volume and price: a shortage anywhere is a shortage everywhere. Finally, the article discusses the oft-used balance of payments argument for reducing coil imports, questioning the calculations on which it is based. It concludes that any argument for reducing oil imports for balance of payments reasons applies equally to other imported commodities.



Is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve our Ace in the Hole?

Timothy J. Considine

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No3-6
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Abstract:
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is often touted as a vital asset in mitigating the adverse effects of oil supply disruptions on the economy. The importance of SPR, however, largely depends upon the effect of stock sales on market prices. To address this question, this study develops a monthly econometric model of the world crude oil market. Inventories, consumption, production, and prices for crude oil are determined within a dominant producer pricing framework in which Saudi Arabia adjusts output based upon market demand and competitive fringe supply. The estimation results provide additional support for the dominant producer pricing model for world oil markets and reasonable estimates of short-run supply and demand elasticities. Several model simulations are conducted to assess the impacts of SPR policies. For example, the gradual build-up of the SPR by the Bush Administration resulted in a very small, almost imperceptible increase in world prices. Similarly, the Clinton sale from SPR had minor impacts on market prices. Another simulation indicates that while SPR sales can lower world prices during a supply shock, the required drawdown would be so substantial the reserve would be significantly depleted after just a few months. These findings suggest that once played, the SPR card has modest impacts on world prices and could be easily trumped by actions of other players, including output adjustments by world oil producers.



Asymmetric Adjustments in Oil and Metals Markets

Shawkat Hammoudeh, Li-Hsueh Chen and Bassam Fattouh

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No4-9
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Abstract:
Using the threshold cointegration methods, Enders-Siklos (2001) and Hansen-Seo (2002), this study finds that spot and futures prices in each of the four widely traded commodities, copper, gold, WTI oil and silver are asymmet�rically co-integrated. However, the asymmetric adjustment to the long-run equi�librium differs among those commodities, reflecting different profitable opportu�nities. The adjustment is faster for copper after positive shocks, while it is faster for the safe havens oil, gold and silver after negative shocks. It is more the spot and not the futures price for the four commodities that focuses in its adjustment on long-run factors. In sum, the adjustments imply different trading strategies, depending on whether the faster adjustment happened from above or below the threshold.



Volatility Dynamics and Seasonality in Energy Prices: Implications for Crack-Spread Price Risk

Hiroaki Suenaga and Aaron Smith

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No3-2
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Abstract:
We examine the volatility dynamics of three major petroleum commodities traded on the NYMEX: crude oil, unleaded gasoline, and heating oil. Using the partially overlapping time-series (POTS) framework of Smith (2005), we model jointly all futures contracts with delivery dates up to a year into the future and extract information from these prices about the persistence of market shocks. The model depicts highly nonlinear volatility dynamics that are consistent with the observed seasonality in demand and storage of the three commodities. Specifically, volatility of the three commodity prices exhibits time-to-delivery effects and substantial seasonality, yet their patterns vary systematically by contract delivery month. The conditional variance and correlation across the three commodities also vary over time. High price volatility of near-delivery contracts and their low correlation with concurrently traded distant contracts imply high short-horizon price risk for an unhedged position in the calendar or crack spread. Price risk at the one-year horizon is much lower than short-horizon risk in all seasons and for all positions, but it is still substantial in magnitude for crack-spread positions. Crack-spread hedgers ignore nearby high-season price risk at their peril, but they would also be remiss to ignore the long horizon.



Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas

Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Brian Horii, Ren Orans, and Jay Zarnikau

Year: 2012
Volume: Volume 33
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol33-No1-8
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Abstract:
We use a large Texas database to quantify the effect of rising wind generation on the payoffs of a tolling agreement for natural-gas-fired generation of electricity. We find that while a 20% increase in wind generation may not have a statistically-significant effect, a 40% increase can reduce the agreement's average payoff by 8% to 13%. Since natural-gas-fired generation is necessary for integrating large amounts of intermittent wind energy into an electric grid, our finding contributes to the policy debate of capacity adequacy and system reliability in a restructured electricity market that will see large-scale wind-generation development.Keywords: Wind generation, Tolling agreement, Spark spread option, Investment incentive



Physical Markets, Paper Markets and the WTI-Brent Spread

Bahattin Buyuksahin, Thomas K. Lee, James T. Moser, and Michel A. Robe

Year: 2013
Volume: Volume 34
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.3.7
View Abstract

Abstract:
We document that, starting in the Fall of 2008, the benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has periodically traded at unheard-of discounts to the corresponding Brent benchmark. We further document that this discount is not reflected in spreads between Brent and other benchmarks that are directly comparable to WTI. Drawing on extant models linking oil inventory conditions to the futures term structure, we test empirically several conjectures about how calendar and commodity spreads (nearby vs. first-deferred WTI; nearby Brent vs. WTI) should move over time and be related to storage conditions at Cushing. We then investigate whether, after controlling for macroeconomic and physical market fundamentals, spread behavior is partly predicted by the aggregate oil futures positions of commodity index traders.




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