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An Analysis of Commercial and Industrial Customer Response to Time-of-Use Rates

Joseph G. Hirschberg and Dennis J. Aigner

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-NoSI-7
No Abstract

Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets

Xiaodong Du and Lihong Lu McPhail

Year: 2012
Volume: Volume 33
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.33.2.8
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Motivated by strong comovement and increasing volatility of energy and agricultural prices, we examine dynamic evolutions of ethanol, gasoline, and corn prices over the period of March 2005-March 2011. A structural change is found around March 2008 in the pairwise dynamic correlations between the prices in a multivariate GARCH model. A structural VAR (SVAR) model is then estimated on two subsamples, one before and one after the identified change point. Using the novel method of identification through heteroscedasticity, we exploit the time-varying price volatilities to fully identify the SVAR model. In the more recent period, ethanol, gasoline, and corn prices are found to be more closely linked with a strengthened corn-ethanol relation, which can be largely explained by the new developments of the biofuel industry and related policy instruments. Variance decomposition shows that for each market a significant and relatively large share of the price variation could be explained by the price changes in the other two markets. The results are robust to the inclusion of seasonal dummies and various representative macroeconomic and financial indicators. Keywords: Biofuel, Identification through heteroscedasticity, Structural change, Structural VAR

Technology and U.S. Emissions Reductions Goals: Results of the EMF 24 Modeling Exercise

Leon E. Clarke, Allen A. Fawcett, John P. Weyant, James McFarland, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, and Yuyu Zhou

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.SI1.2
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This paper presents an overview of the study design and the results of the EMF 24 U.S. Technology Scenarios. The EMF 24 U.S. Technology Scenarios engaged nine top energy-environment-economy models to examine the implications of technological improvements and technological availability for reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and 80% by 2050. The study confirms that mitigation at the 50% or 80% level will require a dramatic transformation of the energy system over the next 40 years. The study also corroborates the result of previous studies that there is a large variation among models in terms of which energy strategy is considered most cost-effective. Technology assumptions are found to have a large influence on carbon prices and economic costs of mitigation. Keywords: Technology, scenarios, climate change

European Scenarios of CO2 Infrastructure Investment until 2050

Pao-Yu Oei and Roman Mendelevitch

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Sustainable Infrastructure Development and Cross-Border Coordination
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Based on a review of the current state of the Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology, this paper analyzes the layout and costs of a potential CO2 infrastructure in Europe at the horizon of 2050. We apply the mixed-integer model CCTS-Mod to compute a CCTS infrastructure network for Europe, examining the effects of different CO2 price paths with different regional foci. Scenarios assuming low CO2 certificate prices lead to hardly any CCTS development in Europe. The iron and steel sector starts deployment once the CO2 certificate prices exceed 50 €/tCO2. The cement sector starts investing at a threshold of 75 €/tCO2, followed by the electricity sector when prices exceed 100 €/tCO2. The degree of CCTS deployment is found to be more sensitive to variable costs of CO2 capture than to investment costs. Additional revenues generated from utilizing CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) in the North Sea would lead to an earlier adoption of CCTS, independent of the CO2 certificate price; this case may become especially relevant for the UK, Norway and the Netherlands. However, scattered CCTS deployment increases unit cost of transport and storage infrastructure by 30% or more.

Oil Prices and the Stock Markets: Evidence from High Frequency Data

Sajjadur Rahman and Apostolos Serletis

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI2.srah
View Abstract

We use the highest frequency data that have ever been studied before to investigate the relationship between the price of oil and stock market returns. In the context of a bivariate (identified using heteroscedasticity in daily data) structural VAR in stock market returns and the change in the price of oil, we find evidence that positive oil price shocks have negative and statistically significant effects on stock market returns. Our results are robust to the use of different types of market returns, including aggregate and disaggregate U.S. market returns, aggregate and disaggregate U.S. excess returns, returns of the energy sector, returns of the major oil and gas companies, and global, eurozone, and some country specific stock market returns. They are also robust to the use of weekly data.

Pathways to 100% Electrification in East Africa by 2030

Giacomo Falchetta, Manfred Hafner, and Simone Tagliapietra

Year: 2020
Volume: Volume 41
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.3.gfal
View Abstract

In spite of abundant generation potential, as of 2019 East Africa has an electricity access level of 36%, with over 140 million people without service. Here, a bottom-up geospatial model (OnSSET) is used to estimate least-cost pathways to universal access to electricity by 2030 for different consumption-tier objectives under three regional grid electricity generation mix scenarios. Results suggest median total required investments of $57 and $110 billion for guaranteeing basic (160 and 44 kWh/person/year in urban and rural areas) and moderate - i.e. including potential to enable some productive uses - (423 and 160 kWh/person/year) consumption for newly connected households by 2030, respectively. This corresponds to an average of $5.6 billion/year, and implies median capacity additions of 12.2 GW (59% on-grid, 37% mini-grids, and 4% standalone solutions). At least further $2.7 billion/year in generation capacity are required to satisfy the projected demand growth from already electrified consumers. A grid electricity scenario with 25% lower photovoltaic costs and a higher penetration of renewables reveals to be up to 10% cheaper and 46% less carbon-intensive, while also requiring less up-front investment. To achieve such objectives, investment must be channelled within an enabling policy environment, which we discuss.

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