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Impacts of the Gulf War and Changes in Eastern Europe

Jean H. Masseron

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No3-1
No Abstract



Unravelling a Riddle: The Outlook for Russian Oil

Campbell Watkins

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
Russia's oil output has been declining. Yet the potential for new discoveries and development remains huge. Whether these opportunities will be seized and current attrition arrested depends on the hydrocarbon sector regime now evolving. Uncertainties on legislation, jurisdictional boundaries, pricing policies and political structures make the investment climate less than benign. Such uncertainties lead to a very marked spread in expectations about future levels of Russian oil output.



On the Cost of Lost Production from Russian Oil Fields

James L. Smith

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No2-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
Russia is now paying heavily for past mismanagement of its major oh, fields. Unconventional attempts to maximize short-run extraction, neglect of routine maintenance, and shortages of critical equipment have combined to cause a steep decline in production. This study examines the scope and size of resulting economic losses using an extension of the traditional exponential decline model. Estimates derived from the model indicate that as much as 40% of the potential value of Russian oil reserves has been lost through poor management.



Strategic Interdependence in European East-West Gas Trade: A Hierarchical Stackelberg Game Approach

Waft Grais and Kangbin Zheng

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No3-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
The current and potential benefits of European East-West gas trade are enormous for all participants. The new and more complex structure of the natural gas transit system, as emerged with political and economic changes in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, has created uncertainties about the interdependence and interactions among the participants. Using a Stackelberg game with three layers of players (suppliers, transiters and importers), this paper establishes a framework to analyze rational behaviors of the participants and reasonable ways to formulate transparent, flexible, and incentive-compatible contracts. This framework is also used to show how to modify the trade contract to accommodate changes in the gas trade environment. Improving predictability of the players' reactions to external changes can enhance the reliability of gas trade and allow its expansion to benefit all participants.



Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe — A Simulation Analysis

Christian von Hirschhausen, Berit Meinhart, and Ferdinand Pavel

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No2-3
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Abstract:
This paper examines the options of transporting Russian gas to Western Europe, an issue that has thus far been dominated by a single transit country, Ukraine, which has recently witnessed substantial political turmoil. The completion of a new transit corridor through Belarus in 1999, the so-called Yamal-Europe pipeline, has modified the situation profoundly. The paper develops a model of different strategies of Russia and Ukraine, and derives the analytical solution for Russian gas exports to Western Europe, prices, and the expected profits for the players; we also calibrate numerical results and perform simulations. It turns out that Ukraine suffers a loss from the market entry of Belarus, Russia�s profits significantly increase, and Russia has an incentive to expand its gas transit capacity through Belarus further. The gas price for West European importers falls in the case of cooperative behavior of Russia and Ukraine, and/or new pipeline construction through Belarus. However, both developments would also imply a higher European import dependence on Russian gas.



Russian Gas Imports in Europe: How Does Gazprom Reliability Change the Game?

Joris Morbee and Stef Proost

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No4-4
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Abstract:
Europe�s dependence on Russian gas imports has been the subject of increasing political concern after gas conflicts between Russia and Ukraine in 2006 and 2009. This paper assesses the potential impact of Russian unreliability on the European gas market, and how it affects European gas import strategy. We also study to what extent Europe should invest in strategic gas storage capacity to mitigate the effects of possible Russian unreliability. The European gas import market is described by differentiated competition between Russia and a � more reliable � competitive fringe of other exporters. The results show that Russian contract volumes and prices decline significantly as a function of unreliability, so that not only Europe but also Russia suffers if Russia�s unreliability increases. For Europe, buying gas from more reliable suppliers at a price premium turns out to be generally more attractive than building strategic gas storage capacity.



Liberalizing Russian Gas Markets – An Economic Analysis

Finn Roar Aune, Rolf Golombek , Arild Moe, Knut Einar Rosendahl and Hilde Hallre Le Tissier

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Adelman Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.SI1.faun
View Abstract

Abstract:
The Russian gas market is highly regulated with low user prices of natural gas. In this paper we examine possible impacts of regulatory changes on the demand side of this market. In particular, we consider the effects on Russian energy consumers of increasing the regulated prices of natural gas, and how changes in Russian gas consumption may affect its gas export to Europe. We also examine the importance of Russian pipeline capacity to Europe, as well as impacts of hypothetical changes in Russian gas export behavior. For this purpose we use a detailed numerical model for the energy markets in Europe and Russia - LIBEMOD. Our results suggest that increasing the regulated natural gas prices will have substantial impacts on total consumption of gas in Russia, especially in the electricity sector. The magnitude of gas export to Europe will be significantly affected because more gas becomes available for export. Removal of other market imperfections in the Russian energy markets has smaller impacts on prices and quantities than imposing competitive natural gas prices. More competitive Russian gas export behavior would lead to much higher gas export to Europe, but our results suggest that Russian welfare would drop due to lower gas export prices.



Potential Futures for Russian Natural Gas Exports

Peter R. Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Russia is a dominant supplier of natural gas, especially to Europe, and has the resources to become even more dominant in the future. Nevertheless, we show that Russia�s ability to influence the world natural gas market is limited in the longer term by competition from alternative suppliers.





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