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America's Energy Choices - Presidential Address

Sam H. Schurr

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-1
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Abstract:
In trying to decide on a topic for this address I found myself wavering between a talk that would review this first, eventful year in the life of our Association as opposed to a subject which would be more substantive in nature. Substance finally won out, partly be-cause of personal preference, and partly because of the advice of others. The remarkable progress of the Association is something we are all proud of, but I believe that it has been-and will continue to be-well documented in many ways familiar to all of us. The forth-coming appearance in the near future of the Association's own professional journal will be a signal event in the unfolding story of the Association's successful development.



The Energy Crisis and Macroeconomic Policy

William D. Nordhaus

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-2
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Abstract:
It is hard to find an issue more confusing than energy policy. Is there a shortage of oil? Why? How long will the shortages last? Who's to blame? What will be the supply and demand response to price decontrol? What are the appropriate policy responses today? Can the president or the secretary of energy or the Congress be trusted to find the answers? And so on.



Energy Policy: An Economist's Confessions

James R. Schlesinger

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-3
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Abstract:
It is a particular pleasure to be addressing an association of professional colleagues. I must concede it is the first time that I have done so since I was on the faculty at the University of Virginia. The atmosphere here is a little bit chilly; you can rest assured that when our rulemaking on temperature control takes effect on July 1, you will not have this experience.



Residential Electricity Revisited

Hendrik S. Houthakker

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-4
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Abstract:
The following is a report on various attempts to update and improve an earlier analysis of residential electricity demand (Houthakker, Verleger, and Sheehan, 1974-hereafter referred to as HVS). To understand what is new the reader should first know what has been maintained, namely:1. the logarithmic flow-adjustment model which estimates this year's consumption from last year's consumption, this year's price and income, and possibly (though not in HVS) from other variables,2. the pooling of annual time series for 48 states using the error component approach of Balestra & Nerlove, 3. the use of a "marginal price" for electricity.The present paper may be regarded as a verification of the first of these hypotheses, and to some extent of the other two.



Coal Liquefaction

George R. Hill

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-9
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Abstract:
The relative quantities of coal, petroleum (plus natural gas liquids), and natural gas proved and currently available in the United States are 18 X 1015 British thermal units (Btu), 3.7 X 1015 Btu, and 2.5 X 1015 Btu, respectively. The relative total recoverable resources are 134 X 1015 Btu for coal, 11.2 X 1015 Btu for petro-leum, and 9.5 X 1015 Btu for natural gas (Parent, 1979). Since coal represents roughly 86 percent of the total U.S. resource, one would expect its use to approximate that percentage of the energy input in the United States. But actually, the percentage of coal in the fossil energy input is only 21 percent. Petroleum and natural gas consumption accounts for nearly 75 percent. Almost half (48 percent) of the fossil energy used in the United States consists of petroleum and its products. Since some 45 percent of this petro-leum must now be imported, it is essential that our primary re-source, coal, be used in increasing amounts. This paper presents



Appropriate Government Policy Toward Commercialization of New Energy Supply Technologies

Richard Schmalensee

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No2-1
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Abstract:
This article considers the merits of government support for the commercialization of particular energy supply technologies, and sketches a framework for the economic evaluation of different schemes for such support.' Specific current proposals are not analyzed in detail, as the emphasis is on identifying conditions under*Professor of Applied Economics, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.



Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975

Knut Anton Mork and Robert E. Hall

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No3-2
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Abstract:
The rapid escalations of energy prices, in late 1973 and early 1974 and again in mid- and late-1979, have had major adverse impactson the U.S. economy. The energy price shock of 1973-1974 played a dominant role, by most accounts, in bringing about the deep recession and high inflation of the mid-1970s. In the most recent period, the full impact is yet to be seen, but it does not appear to be minor.In a previous paper published in this journal, (volume 1, number 2, April 1980), we presented the results of our efforts to quantify the economic impact on the U.S. economy of the July 1979 oil price increases.



Petroleum Policy and Mexican Domestic Politics: Left Opposition, Regional Dissidence, and Official Apostasy

Edward J. Williams

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No3-4
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Abstract:
The impact of the petroleum industry on oil-producing countries has frequently emphasized the intimate interconnection and reciprocal influences of economic and political change. The agony of contemporary Iran is a dramatic example, but only one of many that help prove the point. In Nigeria's recent history, the competition for control of petroleum resources was one factor instigating a brutal civil war. In Venezuela, a new era of constitutional stability flowed from an expanded economic base provided by petroleum export earnings. In the United States, the rise to national prominence of the Texas politicos reflected the economic changes that evolved from petroleum discoveries.



Energy Price Increases and Macroeconomic Policy

Robert S. Pindyck

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-1
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Abstract:
A rising world price of energy imposes a macroeconomic cost on the United States in two different ways. First, to the extent that energy is both an important input to production and a consumption good, with limited elasticities of substitution and demand, the economy's production and consumption possibilities are necessarily reduced as energy becomes more scarce. Thus, even if an expansionary monetary and fiscal policy were successful in pushing the economy close to its full capacity level, the resulting real national income would be lower than if energy prices had notAn earlier version of this paper was presented at the CEPR Conference on Energy Prices, Inflation and Economic Activity, Cambridge, November 9, 1979. Work leading to this paperwas supported by the Center for Energy Policy Research of the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory, and that support is gratefully acknowledged. In writing this paper, I benefited considerablyfrom conversations with and comments from Olivier Blanchard, Stanley Fischer, Benjamin Friedman, Robert Hall, Franco Modigliani, Robert Solow, and an anonymous referee.



Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency in Standards for Household Appliances

J. Daniel Khazzoom

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-2
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Abstract:
In the discussion of energy conservation, a great deal of attention has focused on mandated efficiency standards for cars and energy-using household appliances. (In this article, I will use the term "appliance" in a generic sense to cover household durables). Unfortunately, the estimates of energy savings predicted to result from these mandated standards are derived mechanically.' When mandated standards raise the appliance efficiency by 1 percent, demand is predicted to drop by 1 percent; when they raise efficiency by 2 percent, demand is predicted to drop by 2 percent; and so on. Examples of such results are found in reports by the Department of Energy (1979a, 1980) and by the Staff of the California Energy Commission (1979) on energy demand in California in the coming two decades.




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