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The World Oil Market (WOM) Model: An Assessment of the Crude Oil Market Through 2000

Lorents Lorentsen and Kjell Roland

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No1-2
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Abstract:
The great demand for oil price forecasts has resulted in extensive discussion of possible behavioral and structural relationships to describe this jerky market. On the supply side, much attention has been focused on the inner life of OPEC. Is it or not a cartel? Is it a cartel with a competitive fringe? How strong is the tension between high and low absorbers? Are the depletion policies derived from myopic cash requirements or from long-term optimization schemes?



An Integrated Analysis of U.S. Oil Security Policies

Frederic H. Murphy, Michael A. Toman, and Howard J. Weiss

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No3-5
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Abstract:
Despite waning governmental interest, the current world oil market provides a valuable opportunity for reflecting on how U.S. policies can be structured to best guard against future disruptions in oil supplies. A vast literature on this subject has developed over the past few years. Yet, important points of disagreement remain.



Oil Production Outside OPEC and the Former Soviet Union: A Model Applied ot the U.S. and U.K.

John V. Mitchell

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-9
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Abstract:
Oil production in the area outside OPEC and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) has grown steadily for the past 30 years. This growth is expected to continue, despite the decline in oil prices since 1985. The steady growth in production contrasts with dramatic swings in oil prices. Non-price factors such as policies, enterprise behavior, and technical phenomena are important. This article sketches a model for tracing their interaction over time. The model is tested against the very different histories of oil production in the U. S. and U. K. The main conclusion is that non-price factors are important and differ between countries: in the U.S., environmental policy, and in the U.K., tax policy have been critical in determining oil production. The model may be extended to countries dominated by state oil enterprises, which account for most of the remaining production in this area, but this would require country-by-country analysis.





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