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The Clumsy Cartel

M.A. Adelman

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
The recent price explosions in the world oil market result from the tardy recognition of the post-1973 consumption slowdown. Such odd results could not happen in a competitive market, but they are not at all strange in the world of the cartel. An analogy may help explain. A diver in the sea cannot go lower than the sea floor, nor higher than the water's surface. He is nearly weightless, and can float at any depth between these extremes, but the slightest impact or effort sends him up or down. Similarly, in any market, the price cannot drop below incremental cost, since such a drop would choke off supply, nor can it rise above the level that would maximize profit to a monopoly, since the monopoly would gain by putting the price back down. But in a once-competitive market, where the price has been rising toward some unknown monopoly optimum, the price can hold steady or can move drastically up or down in response to very slight impulses. In this range the price may show no response, or even a perverse response, to changes in demand. Since 1973, price response has been perverse. This was clearly the case in 1974, as the world headed into recession. It is so again in 1979.During 1973-1978, real incomes in the non-Communist indus-trialized countries rose 13 percent, but oil use nevertheless was flat at approximately 50 million barrels daily (MBD). Exports



The World Oil Market: An Exporter's View

Alirio A. Parra

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
I am deeply honored to be part of this distinguished panel and to address my professional colleagues on the occasion of the first annual meeting of the International Association of Energy Econo-mists.



Crude Oil Resource Appraisal in the United States

Noel D. Uri

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No3-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
Prior to the Arab oil embargo that began in October 1973, the general feeling was that U.S. oil resources were almost limitless. Certainly there were some who were aware that the rate of crude oil produc-tion was falling and costs were increasing, but these perceptions were relegated to the background. Past experience supported the explorer's optimistic outlook concerning potential discoveries. The United States never seemed in danger of being less than the world's foremost producer of crude oil.



An Assessment of the Effects of the Windfall Profits Tax on Crude Oil Supply

Philip K. Verleger, Jr.

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
Most economic assessments of the recently enacted crude oil "windfall profits tax" (P. L. 96-223) have concluded that the tax will reduce the economic incentive to produce crude oil and will therefore have a negative impact on U.S. oil production.' This article disagrees with that view. Instead we show that the tax offers incentives to producers on existing properties that exceed those offered by a free market. Furthermore, based on estimates of these incentives, we conclude that the tax will1. See, for instance, Mead (1979) Wall Street Journal (1980), and Friedman (1980).Support from grants to the program on business and government relations at the School of Organization and Management at Yale University is gratefully acknowledged. Extraordinary assistance from Edward Erickson and Linda Scotten in improving the exposition of this paper is also gratefully acknowledged. The author assumes full responsibility for any errors.



An Analysis of the Supply of Oil

Ali M. Reza

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No2-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
The demand for oil has been studied more extensively than the supply of oil, perhaps because the theory underlying the demand for oil is more developed. But a better understanding of the supply of oil is also necessary in our analysis of the oil market, and this article is an effort in that direction. More specifically, in this article we are interested in determining the shape of the supply of oil for an oil-exporting nation and the factors that cause this supply to change; upon aggregation of such individual supplies OPEC's supply can then be obtained.



Oil and Energy Demand in Developing Countries in 1990

Charles Wolf, Jr., Daniel A. Relles, Jaime Navarro

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No4-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade? Will their requirements be small and thus fairly insignificant compared with world demand, or large and relatively important? How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs?In the study on which this article is based, we try to develop some reasonable forecasts of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years.' Our focus is mainly on the demand for oil, but we also give some attention to the total commercial energy requirements of these countries. We have tried to be explicit about the uncertainties associated with our forecasts, and with the income and price elasticities on which they are based.



Reducing the Economic Impacts of Oil Supply Interruptions: An International Perspective

Henry S. Rowen, John P. Weyant

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No1-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
Several circumstances could lead to deep and extended interruptions of the world's supply of oil during the 1980s. The range of potential interruptions includes those on the scale experienced in 1973-74 and 1979-80 but is not limited to them. Much deeper and longer interruptions may occur or be threatened.



Will President Reagan's Energy Policy Lead Households to Conserve?

Eric S. Brown

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No1-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
When energy was cheap and easily available, consumers' paid little attention to their energy use and bills, so after the supply disruptions of the1970s, they were poorly equipped to deal with the changes they faced in energy prices and availability. During the 1970s, the federal government undertook various programs of education and assistance, including dissemination of printed information, establishment of energy standards for federally financed homes, and tax credits for use of alternative energy sources.









Notes - Risk Analysis of Alternative Energy Sources

Daniel R. Kazmer

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No1-11
No Abstract



Reply to "Risk Analysis of Alternative Energy Sources"

Miller B. Spangler

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No1-12
No Abstract



Wood Energy Bibliography

n/a

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No1-13
No Abstract





Notes - Comment on "Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency..."

Stanley M. Besen and Leland L. Johnson

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No1-9
No Abstract



Coping with Supply Insecurity

M. A. Adelman

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No2-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
Since the end of World War II, there have been six world oil supply disruptions, in 1951, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1979, and 1980-one year in six, and the frequency seems to be increasing. This danger will continue, for there are many sources of disruption. Although the probability of any one type in any one year is low, the chances of escaping them all for several years are also low.



Oil and Ideology in the United States Senate

Joseph P. Kalt

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No2-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
The last decade has brought dramatic changes in U.S. energy policy. These changes provide fertile ground for research. Perhaps nowhere is this more true than in the petroleum sector, where develop-ments since the Arab oil embargo of 1973 have been accompanied by major alterations in the direction and scope of federal involvement. The ready availability of both relevant data and tried-and-tested methodologies facilitates scholarly investigation of the effects of post-embargo federal petroleum policy. To be sure, the opportunities for these investigations are not being passed up.




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