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Prospects for a Tighter World Oil Market

Edward W. Erickson

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-1
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Abstract:
Once again, the world oil market has failed to behave according to expectation. This time, the predictions of sharp price drops did not materialize-nor did previous forecasts of continuing escalation. This ongoing divergence between expectations and reality is becoming standard-as is the remarkable resiliency in the position and behavior of Saudi Arabia.



Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions

James D. Hamilton

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-9
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Abstract:
Turbulent petroleum markets and poor economic performance have been making headlines for the last decade. Three major oil shocks (1973-1974, 1979, and 1980-1981) have each been followed by major recessions. While the magnitude and violence of recent oil price changes are unique in postwar experience, the phenomenon of political instability producing disruptions in petroleum supply is not. Hamilton (1983a) observed that all but one of the recessions in the United States since World War II were preceded-typically by about nine months-by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum (see Figure 1).



Oil Price Volatility and Bilateral Trade

Shiu-Sheng Chen and Kai-Wei Hsu

Year: 2013
Volume: Volume 34
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.1.9
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Abstract:
This paper examines whether oil price volatility affects bilateral trade between two countries around the world. Using the gravity econometric model with 1,995 country-pairs covering 117 countries from 1984 to 2009, the empirical results suggest that oil price fluctuations significantly decrease bilateral trade volumes. The negative impact is more prominent the greater the distance between the two trading countries. As geographical distance is one of the measures of transport cost, our results also suggest that a potential channel through which oil price volatility hurts trade volumes is the uncertainty in transport cost.



Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence

Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.5.sdeg
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Abstract:
Do oil prices and stock markets move in tandem or in opposite directions? The complex and time varying relationship between oil prices and stock markets has caught the attention of the financial press, investors, policymakers, researchers, and the general public in recent years. In light of such attention, this paper reviews research on the oil price and stock market relationship. The majority of papers we survey study the impacts of oil markets on stock markets, whereas, little research in the reverse direction exists. Our review finds that the causal effects between oil and stock markets depend heavily on whether research is performed using aggregate stock market indices, sectorial indices, or firm-level data and whether stock markets operate in net oil-importing or net oil-exporting countries. Additionally, conclusions vary depending on whether studies use symmetric or asymmetric changes in the price of oil, or whether they focus on unexpected changes in oil prices. Finally, we find that most studies show oil price volatility transmits to stock market volatility, and that including measures of stock market performance improves forecasts of oil prices and oil price volatility. Several important avenues for further research are identified.Keywords: Oil prices, oil price volatility, stock markets, interconnectedness, forecasting, oil-importers, oil-exporters





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